Quick update on the weekend from the new 06Z Euro and ensembles:
- Firstly, the tornado threat in the northeast for later has decreased with no area now more than 2% probability.
- The 06Z Euro run now shows the rain starting in the late afternoon to early evening from west to east on Friday for Long Island and mostly ending by mid-morning on Saturday, but it also shows some scattered showers still in the vicinity and off to the southwest on Saturday afternoon and evening.
- The ensembles show there is still a threat for showers on Sunday and Monday with the best chance being for coastal areas of the northeast, as shown in the images below. Let's see what the 12Z runs of the GFS, Canadian, and Euro show.
- 1st to 3rd images: Projected 24-hour rainfall from 2 PM Friday to 2 PM Saturday, from 2 PM Saturday to 2 PM Sunday, and from 2 PM Sunday to 2 PM Monday, respectively, from the Euro ensemble mean.
- 4th to 7th images: Maps from the Euro for 5 PM Friday, 1 AM Saturday, 8 AM Saturday, and 4 PM Saturday, respectively