• My Personal Weatherman™

Quick update on Tropical Storm Iota and the rain/wind for Long Island Sunday afternoon/evening:

Tropical Storm Iota will rapidly intensify into a major hurricane with 120 mph maximum sustained winds by Monday with an expected landfall in Central America, somewhere near the Nicaragua/ Honduras border late on Monday. It has the potential to produce 20 to 30 inches of rain with a focus across northern Nicaragua and Honduras. This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.

The Euro and NAM are showing the potential for wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph Sunday late afternoon/ early evening on Long Island and in southern New England as the cold front comes through. They are actually showing gusts over 60 mph, but they will likely not mix down to the surface. A Wind Advisory may need to be issued. The rain for Long Island generally looks to be between 3 PM and 9 PM, a little earlier for Nassua.

- 1st image: Official forecast map for Iota from the NHC

- 2nd image: Projected tracks from various models

- 3rd image: Projected IR satellite image for Iota 1 PM Monday. This track may be too far north though.

- 4th image: Maximum projected wind gusts in knots through 7 AM Monday from the Euro

- 5th image: Projected wind gusts at 7 PM Sunday from the NAM model

- 6th image: Simulated future radar for 7 PM Sunday from the NAM model

- 7th image: Projected snowfall for Long Island for the next 15 days as a running total from every Euro ensemble member

- 8th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend

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