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Rain/wind/t-storm update, weekend storm less certain, and the Long Island forecast:

The severe thunderstorm potential (tornadoes and damaging wind gusts) for today has increased for the mid-Atlantic from central NJ southward. A tornado and damaging wind gusts can't be ruled out on Long Island also as we are in the 2% probability of a tornado and 5% probability of damaging wind gusts of 57 mph or higher occurring within 25 miles of any given location. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Long Island from 10 AM to 7 PM for wind gusts up to 50 mph from the southeast. The best chance for 50 mph gusts is the south shore of Suffolk and east end or in any thunderstorms that occur. Outside of any thunderstorms, a temperature inversion in the lower part of the atmosphere should prevent the 60 to 70 mph gusts from the low-level jet from mixing down to the surface, but you will hear the wind roaring above.

The potential weekend storm is far less certain and less likely. The models are kind of all over the place. Some are showing a weaker first system for Saturday and then a stronger offshore storm for Monday. I will be updating on this throughout the week.


Today (Monday): Rain developing between around 8 AM and 11 AM from west to east and becoming moderate to occasionally heavy at times with increasing wind by early afternoon with gusts of 40 to 55 mph from the southeast into the late afternoon or early evening. There is also a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon that could contain damaging wind gusts close to 60 mph. Mild with highs around 62 or 63 degrees. Total rainfall by late Monday night should be between 1.25 and 1.75 inches. The rain should end from west to east between around 8 PM and 11 PM, but it will become more scattered after 5 PM.

Tomorrow (Tuesday): Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of a scattered shower. Temperatures dropping from the mid to upper 50's in the morning to the upper 40's by late afternoon. It will also be breezy with wind gusts up to 25 mph from the SSW in the afternoon.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy and a little breezy with highs in the mid 40's.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with highs in the upper 40's.

Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers in the afternoon with highs around 50 degrees.

Saturday: Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers. Highs around 50 degrees.

- 1st image: Severe thunderstorm threat for today into tonight from the Storm Prediction Center

- 2nd image: Maximum projected wind gusts from the National Weather Service

- 3rd image: Projected precipitation through 7 AM Wednesday from the Weather Prediction Center

- 4th to 6th images: Simulated radar for today at 11 AM, 3 PM, and 8 PM, respectively, from the HRRR model

- 7th image: Projected snowfall for the next 10 days from the Euro

- 8th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend

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