- The rainfall totals from the last couple of days (mostly yesterday) on Long Island were highly variable, but mostly on the lower side between 0.25 and 1.75 inches, which is why I kept showing the highly variable high-resolution rainfall maps of the HRRR and NAM and also why I mentioned in my forecast that the amounts would probably be less than the Flood Watch amounts of 2 to 4 inches. However, the amounts were even less than I expected as the main forcing was north of Long Island and then main heavier rainfall shield from the surface low pressure went south of Long Island. Later I will probably post the map showing rainfall amounts, but here is a link to the rainfall totals over the last couple of days for the tri-state area, and just scroll down a little to see Nassau and Suffolk amounts: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSOKX&e=202209070241
- Besides a chance of a shower today, don't expect any rain then until Monday night or Tuesday next week with mostly just some showers with amounts possibly around a quarter of an inch.
- Hurricane Earl is continuing to intensity on its way to becoming a major hurricane at Cat 3 with maximum sustained winds over 115 mph, probably around the time it passes just southeast of Bermuda tomorrow night with tropical storm conditions expected as a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.
- While tropical storm Fiona may form from the system in the eastern Atlantic, it will head northwestward towards the middle of the Atlantic. It's the next system, which would then be named Gaston that has a chance to make it farther westward, but even with that system, the ensembles eventually have it curve northward before reaching the United States, but it still bears watching as it can still change.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Today: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a 30% chance of a few light scattered showers with highs in the low to mid 70's. Wind out of the ENE to NE at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
Tonight: Decreasing clouds with lows in the low 60's. Wind out of the NE at 10 to 15 mph.
Tomorrow: Becoming mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 70's, but a little cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the NE at 10 to 15 mph.
Tomorrow night: Mostly clear with lows in the low 60's in Nassau and around 60 degrees in Suffolk. Wind out of the NE at 5 to 10 mph.
Friday: Sunny with highs around 80 degrees, but a little cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the NNE at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and then out of the E at around 10 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with highs in the low 80's, but a little cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind nearly calm in the morning and then out of the S at 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Sunday: Partly cloudy with highs in the low 80's, but a little cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the W at 5 mph in the morning and then out of the SSW at around 10 mph in the afternoon.
Monday: Partly sunny and humid with highs around 80 degrees, but a little cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the SW at 5 mph in the morning and out of the SSW at 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy and humid with some scattered showers likely with highs near 80 degrees, but a little cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the S at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
- 1st image: My 5 day outlook for Long Island
- 2nd image: Euro ensembles for the next 15 days
- 3rd and 4th images: NHC map for the tropics and Hurricane Earl
- 5th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS Model Blend
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