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Scattered thunderstorms before the beautiful weather and something to watch in the tropics:

- Thunderstorms with heavy downpours have been lifting northward early this morning from western Long Island into NYC and NJ with the warm front, and there will be plenty of strong storms in New England today. There was even just a few minutes ago a tornado warning for southern Brooklyn and Queens until 5 AM (but it has been canceled as of 4:50 AM) and a Flash Flood Warning for NYC until 7:30 AM. There is a heavy downpour by me right now in northern Nassau. Models are now hinting at a slight chance for a scattered shower or thunderstorm on Long Island with a much better chance in New England when the cold front comes through between around 5 PM and 8 PM from west to east on Long Island, and then the beautiful air mass moves in! I have included future radar images below.

- No rain is then expected for at least the next 5 or 6 days, and after the cooler weather from Thursday to Saturday, it warms up and becomes very warm to hot for early to mid next week.

- The lead system in the tropics is now being given a 30% chance of tropical development within the next 5 days by the NHC, and more of the models are starting to pick up on it. It could start to strengthen when it gets near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend, and the future track after that is highly uncertain.


LONG ISLAND FORECAST:

Today: Very humid in the morning with scattered thunderstorms, mostly in western Nassau and NW Suffolk, ending and then becoming partly sunny in the afternoon with a slight chance of a passing shower/storm in the late afternoon to early evening from west to east when the cold front comes through. Highs around 80 degrees, but a little cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the S to SW at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Slight chance of a scattered early evening shower/thunderstorm with the cold front and then becoming clear and less humid with lows in the low 60's. Wind out of the W at 10 to 15 mph.

Tomorrow: Sunny with low humidity with highs around 81 degrees, but a little cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the W at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and WNW at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tomorrow night: Clear skies with lows in the low 60's. Wind out of the WNW to NW at 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday: Sunny with low humidity with highs in the mid 70's, but a little cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the NW at around 10 mph in the morning and then NNW at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Friday: Sunny with low humidity with highs in the low 70's, but a little cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the NW at 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with low humidity with highs in the mid 70's, but a little cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the NE at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and then out of the S at 10 mph by mid to late afternoon.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with low to moderate humidity with highs near 80 degrees, but a little cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the WSW at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and then out of the SSW at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Monday: Mostly sunny with moderate to high humidity with highs in the low 80's, but a little cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the SW at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and then out of the SSW at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.


- 1st image: My 5 day forecast for Long Island

- 2nd image: Euro ensembles for the next 15 days

- 3rd image: From the National Hurricane Center

- 4th image: Current radar at 4:42 AM

- 5th to 7th images: Future radar from the HRRR model for 9 AM, 2 PM, and 6 PM, respectively

- 8th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS Model Blend










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