• My Personal Weatherman™

***Severe thunderstorm threat includes damaging wind gusts and possible tornadoes***

- Before I get to the severe weather threat for Long Island and the northeast, there is a MAJOR severe weather threat later today into tonight (see 2nd image) for Wisconsin! Strong tornadoes and damaging wind gusts over 70 mph are likely.

- There is an increasing severe thunderstorm threat tomorrow into tomorrow night for Long Island and the northeast (see 3rd and 4th images for the overall threat and the tornado threat, respectively). I will be posting more about it, but this is from the National Weather Service covering Long Island and the Tri-State area: "It is quite possible that warm frontal showers with embedded isolated thunderstorms begin as early as Thursday morning. Heading into the afternoon, a mid- level shortwave impulse and it's associated PVA will likely initiate strong to severe thunderstorms through the evening. Models show 0-6km shear values near 45kts with directional shear present as well. CAPE approaching 1250-1750 J/kg will provide ample energy for storms and coupled with the other parameters isolated tornadoes are a probable outcome. Damaging winds 50-65 mph are the primary concern at this time, but be on the lookout for further updates. Precipitable water values around 1.8-1.9 inches means that storms the form within this environment have the potential to produce nuisance street flooding and will have to be monitored for worsening conditions."

- Beautiful weather follows for Friday and Saturday with low humidity, but the next system will bring showers and possibly thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into the night. Monday and Tuesday then look nice.

- There will also be a lot of rain for the coastal Carolinas over the next 10 days (see 6th image).


Today: Partly cloudy and cooler with only a very slight chance of a stray shower or thunderstorm in the mid to late afternoon with highs around 80 degrees. Wind out of the NNE at 5 to 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with lows in the mid 60's. Wind out of the SE at around 5 mph.

Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy and humid with some scattered showers in the morning and then more widespread coverage of heavy showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening with the potential for heavy downpours and strong gusty winds. Also, hail and a weak tornado cannot be ruled out. Highs in the mid to upper 70's. Wind out of the SSE to S at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon, but any thunderstorm could contain wind gusts over 50 mph.

Tomorrow night: Humid with showers and potentially strong thunderstorms in the evening and then becoming partly cloudy after midnight. Lows in the upper 60's. Wind out of the S at 10 to 15 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny and breezy with low to moderate humidity in the afternoon with highs in the low 80's. Wind out of the NW at 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph late in the day and in the evening.

Saturday: Sunny with low humidity with highs mostly in the upper 70's. Wind out of the WNW to NW at 5 to 10 mph.

Sunday: Increasing clouds with a chance of some showers and thunderstorms by mid to late afternoon with highs around 80 degrees. Wind out of the S to SSW at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

- 1st image: My 5 day outlook for Long Island

- 2nd image: Severe weather potential for today into tomorrow morning from the SPC

- 3rd and 4th images: Severe weather and tornado potential, respectively, for tomorrow into Friday morning from the SPC

- 5th image: Future radar for 4 PM Thursday from the HRRR model

- 6th image: Projected rainfall for the next 10 days from the Euro

- 7th image: Projected temperatures for Farmingdale, Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS model blend

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