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Severe Weather Threat and Katrina

- The 1st image shows the severe weather potential for tomorrow.

- The 2nd image is the simulated future radar from the NAM from 3 AM tomorrow to 3 AM Sunday.

The following is from the National Weather Service covering Long Island and the tri-state area:

The remnant upper level vorticity of Laura will get absorbed in the northern stream trough and swing towards the Mid Atlantic coast Saturday afternoon. An accompanying surface low will take a similar track, with associated warm front lifting north Saturday morning, and then pre-frontal trough approaching Saturday afternoon. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorm development expected late Sat morning into Sat evening ahead of pre-frontal trough, in a very moist air mass (enhanced by remnant moisture from Laura), forced by approaching shortwave and weak low-level jet ahead of trough axis. Overall this environment would present a potential for a few strong to severe storms (localized strong to damaging wind gust threat), but if we do get a few breaks of sun and better heating in the morning, the severe threat would increase. There is a localized flash flood threat from any training heavy downpours/convection in a very moist air mass (2-2 1/2" PWATs). Pre-frontal trough pushes east Sat eve, ending main shower threat, with a few localized showers possible with cold frontal passage passing Sat Night. Gusty NW winds and cooler and drier air mass advects in for Sat night.

- 15 years ago today Hurricane Katrina reached a peak intensity of 175 mph maximum sustained winds with an incredibly low minimum central pressure of 902 mb!

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