Snow maps, Arctic blast, and the models are all showing a snowstorm for Long Island next Mon/Tues:
First, regarding the storm for today, the details for Long Island are in the forecast below, and the snow maps are also posted below. A trough of low pressure will hang around southeastern New England and eastern Long Island with possible snow shower activity lingering into tomorrow night. The NAM is more bullish on this than the HRRR, but I will keep an eye on it.
The Arctic blast coming on Thursday night into early Sunday morning from a lobe of the polar vortex will be intense as wind chills will bottom out below zero on Long Island Friday night with wind gusts up to 35 mph and temperatures in the teens.
As the Arctic air pulls away, a storm will be approaching from the west by Sunday night. As of now, the Euro, GFS, and Canadian all have a snowstorm for Long Island, and while the ensembles generally look pretty good with the storm placement to our southeast, it's still early, and the odds probably still favor some mixing with sleet/rain. The track and intensity will be key in determining the always-important rain/snow line and amount of snow. With the right track, the potential is there for areas on the northwest side of the storm (whether that is Long Island and/or southern to central New England) to get 6 to 12 inches of snow. Of course, I will be updating frequently going forward.
Later next week, it will turn milder as a storm cuts towards the Great Lakes, so temperatures will get into the mid to upper 40's on Long Island with some rain.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Today (Tuesday): Cloudy with light to moderate snow beginning between around 11 AM and 2 PM from west to east with up to a half-inch possible before mixing with sleet after a few hours of snow at any given location. Highs in the mid 30's. Tonight: Some sleet and then rain in the early evening, but with diminishing intensity and becoming more spotty. There won't be much precipitation overnight. Lows in the low to mid 30's. Tomorrow (Wednesday): Cloudy with a slight chance of scattered rain or snow showers, especially in eastern Suffolk. Highs around 40 to 42 degrees. Thursday: Cloudy in the morning and then becoming sunny in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30's, but dropping into the low 30's by late afternoon. Becoming windy in the afternoon with gusts up to 25 mph from the NNW. Thursday night: Clear, windy, and very cold with lows in the mid to upper teens with wind gusts up to 30 mph from the NW. Friday: Mostly sunny, windy, and frigid with highs only in the low to mid 20's with wind gusts up to 35 mph from the NW. The wind chill will mostly be in the single digits. Friday night: Clear, windy, and frigid with lows in the low to mid teens with wind gusts up to 25 mph from the NW. The wind chill temperatures will be as low as -5 degrees. Saturday: Sunny, a little breezy still, and very cold with highs in the upper 20's. Sunday: Increasing clouds with snow possible by evening. Highs in the mid to upper 30's.
- 1st and 2nd images: Snow maps through 1 AM Thursday from the HRRR model and NWS, respectively
- 3rd image: Projected wind chill temperatures from the Euro at 7 AM Saturday
- 4th to 6th images: Maps from the Euro for 1 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM next Tuesday
- 7th image: Projected storm locations from the Euro ensemble members at 7 AM next Tuesday
- 8th and 9th images: Projected snowfall for Long Island and Boston, respectively, for the next 15 days as a running total from every Euro ensemble member
- 10th image: Projected temperatures with ranges for Long Island for the next 15 days from the Euro ensembles
- 11th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS model blend