• My Personal Weatherman

**Snowstorm update**

Firstly, there will be some ocean-effect snow showers across eastern MA today and then a stronger system bringing some snow right along the New England coast tomorrow afternoon/evening, especially for Cape Cod. Also, it's snowing this morning in eastern North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware from that system that will really strengthen offshore. You all know about the Arctic blast by now, and details for Long Island are in the forecast below, but basically it's going to be frigid starting tonight and lasting into Saturday morning. It will still be very cold into Sunday morning, but the wind will have lessened by then. Dangerous wind chill temperatures for the entire northeast starting tonight!

Regarding the big storm from Sunday night into Wednesday for the northeast, there is a good general idea, but of course there is still uncertainty in the track, and therefore the rain/snow line. For Long Island, northwest Nassau has the best chance of staying all or mostly snow, but it's not even a guarantee there as there is considerable spread in the track by the Euro ensembles. For areas of the northeast just northwest of the rain/snow line, amounts could be in the 10 to 14 inch range. Most of the Euro ensemble members do have more than 8 inches on Long Island. However, the National Weather Service model blend has only 2 inches for Montauk and increasing to 8 inches in northwest Nassau. It will still be a long-duration event as the snow should start sometime Sunday night for Long Island and not end until Tuesday morning; the big question is does it change to sleet and rain for a while. Also, there will be the potential for wind gusts up to at least 35 or 40 mph. Of course, I will have frequent updates today into this evening. The following is from the National Weather Service covering Long Island and the Tri-State area: "Global models (00Z) continue to be good agreement in sending a strong Pac system across the country this weekend, with secondary low development along the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday night. Both the GEFS and the ECMWF (Euro) ensembles place the low on a track passing near the 40N...70W benchmark on Monday night. Still though, there are quite a few members on the left and right side of this track, but more clustering to the left. This will be critical to a how much warm Atlantic air is drawn into the system. Right now, the event looks to be all snow inland, but coastal areas and SE CT may see a transition to rain on Monday. However, the system is still off the west coast and there area several players here, a northern branch shortwave dropping across the Great Lakes and another east of the Canadian Maritimes (50/50 low). Thus, still a fair amount of uncertainty with the low track and precipitation type, but the potential is there for a significant winter storm."

Going forward, it will warm up late next week with some rain, but then colder air will return and there could be a chance for snow between Feb 8th and 12th.


Today (Thursday): Cloudy in the morning and mostly sunny in the afternoon with highs in the low to mid 30's. It will become increasingly windy throughout the day with gusts up to 30 mph from the NW to NNW by late afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear, windy, and frigid with lows of 10 to 15 degrees with wind gusts up to 35 mph from the NW. The wind chill temperature will be as low as -5 degrees.

Tomorrow (Friday): Mostly sunny, windy, and frigid with highs only in the low 20's with wind gusts up to 40 mph from the NW. The wind chill will mostly be around 0 degrees.

Tomorrow night: Clear, windy, and frigid with lows between 8 and 12 degrees with wind gusts up to 25 mph from the NW. The wind chill temperatures will be as low as -5 degrees.

Saturday: Sunny, a little breezy still with the wind at 10 to 15 mph from the NW, and very cold with highs in the mid to upper 20's.

Sunday: Increasing clouds in the morning with highs in the low 30's. Snow could begin in the evening or possibly after midnight.

Monday: Snow, moderate to heavy at times, likely in the morning, possibly mixing with sleet/rain in the afternoon, especially for the south shore and eastern Suffolk. It's too soon to tell exactly where the rain/snow line will set up though. Highs in the mid 30's.

Monday night: Rain, sleet, or snow early possibly becoming all snow late, but there is a lot of uncertainty still. Temperatures in the low to mid 30's.

Tuesday: Snow showers ending in the late morning or early afternoon. It's too soon to forecast total accumulations, but the early call is roughly 4 to 8 inches. If it stays all snow, it could be 6 to 12 inches. The best chance for the higher accumulations is northwestern Nassau with lower amounts as you head towards southeastern Suffolk.

- 1st image: Projected storm locations from the Euro ensemble members at 7 AM Tuesday

- 2nd image: Projected wind chill temperatures for 7 AM tomorrow from the HRRR model

- 3rd to 5th images: Projected snowfall through 7 PM Wednesday from the National Weather Service model blend, the Euro ensemble mean, and the Euro

- 6th and 7th images: Projected snowfall for Long Island and Boston, respectively, for the next 15 days as a running total from every Euro ensemble member

- 8th image: Projected temperatures with ranges for Long Island for the next 15 days from the Euro ensembles

- 9th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend

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