Snowstorm update as models shift northwestward:
All of the models seem to have shifted slightly northwest with a better chance for a period of sleet and/or rain for at least eastern Suffolk late tomorrow night. The National Weather Service continues the Winter Storm Watch, and they have not changed their forecast of 8 to 14 inches for Nassau and central to western Suffolk, with 6 to 10 inches for eastern Suffolk with wind gusts as high as 50 mph for both counties. However, I think more likely totals are 5 to 8 inches for eastern Suffolk, 7 to 10 inches for central and western Suffolk, 8 to 11 inches for southern Nassau, and 9 to 12 inches for northern Nassau. I have included the snow maps below from the NWS, Euro, Euro ensemble mean, RGEM, and NAM. The timing still looks to be from around late afternoon tomorrow to Noon on Thursday. There will be a period of heavy snow before any changeover, and then it will go back to snow early Thursday morning as the wind shifts from the ENE to NE and then NNE.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
*The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch from 2 PM Wednesday to 1 PM Thursday for 8 to 14 inches of snow (6 to 10 inches for eastern Suffolk) with wind gusts up to 50 mph creating blizzard conditions at times** Snowfall amounts may be a little lower than they are forecasting.
Today (Tuesday): Mostly sunny, breezy, and cold with highs in the upper 30's. Wind gusts up to 20 mph from the NW.
Tomorrow into tomorrow night: Cloudy with snow developing between 4 PM and 7 PM from west to east and becoming heavy at times at night. Highs in the low to mid 30's. Wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph out of the ENE to NE by late at night. There is a pretty good chance for sleet or rain to mix in along the south shore and east end, and some sleet is possible at times late at night for all but northern Nassau. Near-blizzard conditions are possible late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning for areas that stay all snow. The National Weather Service is forecasting total snowfall amounts by late morning on Thursday of 8 to 14 inches, with 6 to 10 inches for eastern Suffolk. However, I think more likely totals are 5 to 8 inches for eastern Suffolk, 7 to 10 inches for central and western Suffolk, 8 to 11 inches for southern Nassau, and 9 to 12 inches for northern Nassau.
Thursday: Windy with snow tapering off to snow showers/ flurries by Noon. Highs only in the low to mid 30's. Wind gusts over 30 mph out of the NNE in the morning, shifting to N in the afternoon and decreasing to 20 mph by late afternoon.
Friday: Mostly sunny and cold with highs in the mid 30's.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and cold with highs in the upper 30's.
Sunday: Partly to to mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower. Highs around 40 degrees.
- 1st to 5th images: Projected snowfall through 7 PM Thursday from the National Weather Service, RGEM, Euro, Euro ensemble mean, and NAM (the NAM is only through 1 PM Thursday)
- 6th image: Maximum projected wind gusts through 7 PM Thursday from the National Weather Service
- 7th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend