Snowstorm update as uncertainty remains as Euro shifts SE again:
Firstly, for today, there are some snow showers on Long Island right now that can leave a coating to a half-inch, especially in eastern Suffolk, but they will move through quickly. You all know about the frigid conditions, and wind gusts will be up to 45 mph at times today on Long Island with temperatures only in the low 20's. There will also be a period of moderate to heavy snow for Cape Cod this afternoon with almost blizzard conditions at times and several inches of snow from a Norlun trough.
Regarding the upcoming snowstorm, while this probably won't be how it plays out, the main Euro run shifted southeastward so much that it shows it as all snow on Long Island with the highest totals near Montauk and huge totals in southeastern MA. The Euro ensembles did shift slightly southeastward. The Canadian, GFS, and ICON show high snowfall totals on Long Island, even though the GFS and Canadian show it changing to rain for a time Monday night. So, with all of the differences, it's probably best to look at the National Weather Service model blend for some continuity, and it shows heavier snow amounts on Long Island than it showed last night. The start time should be sometime between midnight and 3 AM Monday for Long Island and it should end as snow showers Tuesday afternoon; see the Long Island forecast below for more details.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Today (Friday): Early morning snow showers with up to a half-inch in eastern Suffolk, and then mostly sunny, windy, and frigid with highs only in the low 20's with wind gusts up to 45 mph from the NW. The wind chill will be between -5 and 5 degrees.
Tonight: Clear, windy, and frigid with lows between 9 and 13 degrees with wind gusts up to 30 mph from the NW. The wind chill temperatures will be as low as -5 degrees.
Tomorrow (Saturday): Sunny and very cold with highs in the mid to upper 20's. Wind out of the NW at around 10 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.
Tomorrow night: Partly cloudy and very cold with lows mostly between 10 and 15 degrees with lighter winds.
Sunday: Increasing clouds in the morning with highs around 30 to 32 degrees with light winds.
Sunday night: Light snow developing between midnight and 4 AM with lows in the mid 20's.
Monday: Light snow in the morning becoming moderate to heavy at times in the afternoon and evening, and becoming windy with gusts up to 30 mph from the NE. Highs in the low 30's.
Monday night: Snow could be moderate to heavy at times in the evening, possibly mixing with some sleet and rain for the south shore and east end. Windy with gusts up to 35 mph from the NNE. Temperatures in the low 30's.
Tuesday: Snow showers at times into the afternoon. There can still be shifts in the rain/snow line and the axis of heaviest snow, but total accumulations could be 6 to 10 inches for northwestern Long Island and decreasing to 5 to 8 inches towards southeastern Suffolk.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy and breezy with highs in the upper 30's.
- 1st to 3rd images: Projected snowfall through 7 AM Thursday from the National Weather Service model blend and through 7 PM Wednesday from the Euro ensemble mean and Euro, respectively.
- 4th to 7th images: Maps from the GFS, ICON, Canadian, and Euro, respectively for 7 PM Monday
- 8th image: Projected snowfall for Long Island for the next 15 days as a running total from every Euro ensemble member
- 9th image: Projected temperatures with ranges for Long Island for the next 15 days from the Euro ensembles
- 10th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS model blend