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Storm Analysis

I took the time to look back at my considerable number of posts on this storm, and I'm very content with my forecast/alerts/coverage of it.

  • It started 15 days ago when I posted about the potential big mid-month storm with potential snow for Long Island.

  • Then 8 days ago I posted about the exact time-frame of the storm.

  • The snow map I posted of the Euro 7 days ago (1st image) pretty much exactly nailed the snowfall amounts on Long Island.

  • I then continued to post all of the models as they all consistently showed the storm for many days.

  • Then when the National Weather Service came out with their aggressive 12 to 14 inch snowfall forecast for most of Long Island and things started to change with the northwest shift, I posted about how they would have to lower those amounts.

  • I also posted about how most of the accumulations on Long Island would be over by 1 AM when the change to sleet/rain would begin and that it would change back to snow after 5 AM from west to east.

  • The HRRR model did a great job with snowfall amounts on Long Island (see 2nd image for the snow map I posted before the snow began). It also showed the potential for 3 feet of snow from upstate NY into VT and NH, as did the HREF ensemble mean map that I posted as well. One thing to note is that the HRRR snow map does not use standard 10:1 snow ratios across the board, even though it's labeled that way.

  • In this storm, snow ratios varied greatly, which is why 10:1 snow maps don't tell the story. Snow ratios were up to 20:1 in parts of northern New England, and they were well below 10:1 on Long Island. Also, those snow maps don't distinguish between snow and sleet in the snow totals, which is another reason why the Euro 10:1 map was showing higher snowfall amounts on Long Island in the days leading up to the storm than actually occurred. It's also why you have to be wary when people are posting GFS and Canadian model 10:1 snow maps. Kuchera maps do a better job on the warmer side, but they often overdo the snow amounts on the colder side, which is why I haven't been posting them. When I post the GFS and NAM, I try to post the Positive Snow Depth Change map, which is more realistic, although sometimes it underdoes the amounts on the warmer side.

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