- A quick note on the tropics as Tropical Storm Karl will start moving SSE later today towards a landfall in Mexico late tomorrow night or early Saturday morning. There is also a slight chance of a tropical system forming out in the Atlantic, but it's nothing to worry about.
- The area of the highest rainfall totals has shifted east into central to eastern Suffolk County on Long Island with 1 to 2 inches of rain with locally higher amounts close to 3 inches being possible. The strongest winds will also be in eastern Suffolk with gusts up to 50 mph late tonight. While there may be a few widely scattered showers in the morning into early afternoon, most of the action starts in the mid to late afternoon with the main event really being this evening and all night.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Today: Cloudy and becoming windy with a 40% chance of widely scattered showers in the morning and then periods of rain, mostly after mid-afternoon with highs around 70 degrees. Wind out of the SSE at 10 to 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight: Very windy with periods of rain, heavy at times, and a chance of a thunderstorm, with lows in the upper 50's, but low 60's in eastern Suffolk. Wind out of the SSE to S at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph (50 mph out by Montauk) and then becoming out of the NW late at 10 to 20 mph after the front passes from west to east between 1 AM and 7 AM from west to east as it will be slow to clear Montauk.
Tomorrow: Early morning showers ending in far eastern Suffolk and then mostly sunny with highs in the upper 60's. Wind out of the WNW at around 10 mph.
Tomorrow night: Mostly clear with lows mostly in the mid 40's. Wind out of the WNW at around 5 mph.
Saturday: Sunny with highs in the mid to upper 60's. Wind nearly calm in the morning and then out of the SSW at 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Sunday: Partly cloudy with highs in the upper 60's. Wind out of the W at 5 to 10 mph.
Monday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers with highs in the low 60's. Wind light and variable in the morning and then out of the SW at around 10 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy, breezy, and much cooler with a slight chance of a shower with highs in the mid 50's. Wind out of the W at 10 to 20 mph.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and cool with highs in the low to mid 50's. Wind out of the W at 10 to 20 mph.
- 1st image: My 5 day outlook for Long Island
- 2nd image: Overview of the tropics from the NHC
- 3rd image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 15 days from the Euro ensembles
- 4th to 8th images: Rainfall maps from the HREF ensemble mean, HRRR, Euro, Euro ensemble mean, and Weather Prediction Center
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