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Subtropics, snow outlook with 2 crazy ensemble members showing LI snowstorm, and the LI forecast:

There is still only a 20% chance of subtropical development off the east coast next week. The only potential threat would be to Bermuda as it moves generally northeastward, but it's not expected to become strong at all.


There is a potential storm system for the northeast around December 1st/2nd, and while it will very likely be all rain for Long Island, 2 of the 50 Euro ensemble members are showing a snowstorm for Long Island (see 3rd image). One of them shows 14 inches of snow and the other shows 21 inches of snow, LOL.


The exact timing of the rain next Wed/Thurs is still a little uncertain as the models haven't converged yet, but it looks like a good chance of rain on Thanksgiving for Long Island and southern New England.


LONG ISLAND FORECAST:


Today (Friday): Mostly sunny and breezy with highs in the upper 50's. Wind gusts up to 20 mph from the southwest. Tomorrow (Saturday): Mostly sunny in the morning with more clouds possible by mid to late afternoon with highs in the upper 50's to around 60 degrees with lighter winds. Sunday: Cloudy and cooler with highs around 50 degrees with an onshore flow. There is a very slight chance of a passing shower in the mid to late afternoon, and then an increasing chance of rain in the evening and especially overnight. Monday: Mild in the morning with showers ending around early afternoon with breaks of sun possible by mid to late afternoon from west to east before the sun sets. Temperatures dropping from the mid 50's in the morning to around 50 degrees or the upper 40's by late afternoon as the wind shifts to a NW wind in the afternoon with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph. Tuesday: Partly cloudy, breezy, and much cooler with highs in the mid 40's. Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers developing by late afternoon or evening. The exact timing is still uncertain. Highs in the low 50's. Thanksgiving: Cloudy with a 70% chance of showers. Highs mostly in the mid 50's.

- 1st image: Overview of the tropics from the NHC

- 2nd image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend

- 3rd image: Projected snowfall for Long Island for the next 15 days as a running total from every Euro ensemble member

- 4th image: Projected snowfall for the northeast for the next 10 days from the Euro

- 5th image: Projected precipitation for the next 7 days (through 1 AM next Friday) from the Weather Prediction Center







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