Tammy to be at or near hurricane strength when it moves near or over the Leeward Islands:
- My Personal Weatherman™

- Oct 19, 2023
- 2 min read
From the National Hurricane Center:
Tammy will be moving over warm SSTS as it nears the Leeward Islands, which should allow for gradual strengthening despite the presence of light to moderate wind shear. Given the current sheared structure, the NHC intensity forecast is a bit more conservative during the first day or two than much of the intensity guidance. Despite that, the updated NHC forecast calls for Tammy to be at or near hurricane strength when it moves near or over the Leeward Islands. Additional strengthening is expected after Tammy moves north of the Leeward Islands and recurves over the central Atlantic. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the Lesser Antilles on Friday, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are possible elsewhere in the Leeward Islands where hurricane and tropical storm watches are currently in effect. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. 2. Heavy rains from Tammy will begin to affect the northern Windward and Leeward Islands on Friday, spreading into the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the weekend. This rainfall may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 13.6N 55.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 14.0N 57.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 14.8N 59.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 16.0N 60.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 17.5N 62.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 19.0N 62.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 20.5N 63.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 24.0N 62.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 28.4N 57.9W 75 KT 85 MPH










Comments