- It continues to look like a storm will form over the southeastern states by the coast Saturday afternoon/night and head generally northeastward off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday into Sunday night and become a fairly strong storm. Most of the models and ensembles now bring precipitation at least as far north as Long Island. The timing is roughly Sunday afternoon into late Sunday night for Long Island, and it would be most likely be mostly or all rain. Some ensemble members still show some snow, but it's a fairly low chance right now. The best chance for an accumulating snow would be just inland as shown in the maps below. I will continue to post updates with the latest information.
- The following is what the National Weather Service covering Long Island, NYC, and the tri-state area is saying about the storm: "The main feature in the long term is the potential coastal storm that looks to graze southern portions of the area late in the weekend. The GFS, ECMWF (Euro), and Canadian are in fairly good agreement with the development of low pressure over/off the coast of the Carolinas that then trek ENE, passing well south and east of Long Island. As previously stated, the northern fringes of precipitation moves into Long Island, New York City, portions of northeast New Jersey, and southern Connecticut. Quit a few members of the ECMWF ensemble and the GFS ensemble (though less so than the ECMWF) show a northern fringe impact with this system. NBM also shows at least a chance for precipitation, mainly across southern portions of the forecast area. Of course, this far out, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty with the track of the low and therefore with precipitation types, for now it looks like snow or rain/snow mix changing over to rain for much of the area Sunday, possibly changing back to all snow before ending late Sunday night."
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Today: Mostly sunny with highs around 50 in Nassau and in the upper 40's in Suffolk. Wind out of the WNW then NW at 10 to 15 mph.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with lows in the low 30's. Wind out of the NW at 5 to 10 mph in the evening and then nearly calm after midnight.
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy in the morning and cloudy in the afternoon and becoming breezy with some scattered showers at times in the afternoon with afternoon highs in the upper 40's. Wind light and variable in the morning and then out of the SSE at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Tomorrow night: Windy with scattered showers, mainly before midnight, with partial clearing by morning. Temperatures slowly rising overnight into the low 50's by morning. Wind out of the SSW at 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph in the evening and then out of the WSW at 10 to 20 mph by morning.
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny and breezy with highs in the mid 50's in Nassau and western Suffolk, low 50's in central Suffolk, and near 50 in far eastern Suffolk. Wind out of the W at 10 to 20 mph.
Saturday: Partly sunny with highs in the mid 40's. Wind out of the NNW at 10 to 15 mph.
Sunday: Watching a coastal storm, so stay tuned for changes to the forecast, but it looks mostly cloudy in the morning and cloudy in the afternoon with a 50% chance of rain developing in the afternoon with a slight chance for some wet snow to mix in at night. Highs in the low 40's. Wind out of the NNE at 10 to 20 mph.
Monday: Cloudy early and then becoming partly cloudy with highs in the mid to upper 40's. Wind out of the NNW at 10 to 15 mph.
- 1st image: My 5 day forecast for Long Island
- 2nd image: Projected storm locations/strengths for 1 AM Monday from the Euro ensembles
- 3rd and 4th images: Maps from all 50 Euro ensemble members for Sunday night from 7 PM to 1 AM
- 5th and 6th images: Snow maps from all 50 Euro ensemble members through the Sunday into Monday morning storm
- 7th image: Projected snowfall from the Euro ensemble mean through Monday morning
- 8th and 9th images: Projected temperatures for Long Island
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