The L.I. forecast and most models (except GFS) keep the Saturday system suppressed to the south:

- For the details of the Long Island forecast, see below, but it will be much cooler today and then we have the cold front bringing some showers tonight with some mix/snow as you head north in New England.

- Then we have the warm front lifting through on Thursday with some afternoon/evening showers.

- Most of the models now keep the energy from the 2nd system separated and suppressed to the south of Long Island, but the NWS covering Long Island and the tri-state area does a great job in explaining it: "The main focus to begin the long term is the evolution of an amplified upper trough that approaches on Friday and moves across the first half of the weekend. The deterministic runs continue to be quite inconsistent each cycle. The ensembles indicate some spread, but also offer some confidence that low pressure will develop near the Middle Atlantic on Friday and then track south and east of Long Island Friday night into Saturday. There is some agreement in the modeling that northern stream energy will be much more progressive and outrun the southern stream on Saturday. This splitting of the flow may result in the low pressure and deeper moisture becoming suppressed to the south. While there are many dry members across the CWA, there are enough that have precip reaching the region Friday night into Saturday. The NBM probabilities for this time period look good which give a low chance PoP. There is also a good deal of uncertainty with how the lingering southern stream energy will evolve. If the flow with this energy stays progressive and neutral/positively tilted, much of the precip and associated low pressure would then pass well to the south Saturday/Saturday night. There are some solutions that indicate the energy cutting off and attempting to lift towards the region late Saturday/Saturday night. The NBM is dry Saturday night, but in coordination with neighboring offices felt holding onto a slight chance PoP for eastern half of the area was warranted given the aforementioned uncertainty. Any precip would be rain into Saturday. NBM 24 hour probabilities of observing greater than 0.25 in of rain from 00z Saturday to 00z Sunday are around 15 percent (west) to 30 percent (east). Probabilities drop off for seeing over a half inch, with any significant percentages well offshore.

- Both the Euro ensembles and GFS ensembles are showing some relatively brief and colder weather for President's Day weeekend.

LONG ISLAND FORECAST:

Today: Increasing clouds and becoming a little breezy in the afternoon with highs in the low 40's in Nassau and around 40 degrees in Suffolk with some upper 30's possible in eastern Suffolk. Wind N early and then becoming light and variable at around 5 mph around mid-morning and then and then out of the S at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: A cold front will bring 2 or 3 hours of showers between around 8:30 PM and 1 AM (earlier west and later east) with lows in the mid 30's. Wind out of the S/SSW in the evening at 10 to 15 mph and then out of the W towards morning at 5 to 10 mph.

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny with highs around 50 in Nassau and in the upper 40's in Suffolk. Wind out of the WNW then NW at 10 to 15 mph.

Tomorrow night: Partly cloudy with lows in the low 30's. Wind out of the NW at 5 to 10 mph in the evening and then nearly calm after midnight.

Thursday: Cloudy with some showers at times in the afternoon and evening with afternoon highs in the upper 40's with temperatures very slowly rising at night. Wind light and variable in the morning and then out of the SE at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Friday: Partly sunny and breezy with highs in the mid 50's in Nassau and western Suffolk, low 50's in central Suffolk, and near 50 in far eastern Suffolk. Wind out of the W at 10 to 20 mph.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a 30% chance of showers with highs in the mid 40's. Wind out of the NNW at 10 to 20 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with highs in the low 40's. Wind out of the WNW at 10 to 15 mph.

- 1st image: My 5 day forecast for Long Island

- 2nd image: Model Blend snow map through Sunday morning

- 3rd image: Map from the Euro for Saturday from 7 AM to 1 PM showing the suppressed and separated energy

- 4th and 5th images: Projected temperatures for Long Island