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The Long Island forecast, an update on the tropics, and some images:

See the last 4 images for maps of the high temperatures for today through Monday, as there will be a wide range of temperatures for the area.


LONG ISLAND FORECAST:

Today: Mostly sunny with highs in the low to mid 70's, but cooler for the south shore and east end, and the sea breeze will cause the temperatures to drop in the mid to late afternoon. Wind mostly out of the SSW at around 5 mph in the morning and 10 to 15 mph out of the S in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening and then mostly cloudy after midnight with lows mostly in the upper 50's in Nassau and mid 50's in Suffolk. Wind mostly out of the S at around 10 mph and then decreasing to 5 mph towards and after midnight.

Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with some breaks of sun and just a 20% chance of a shower with the best chance being in the late afternoon and early evening. There will be a wide range of temperatures with the low to mid 80's for central to northern Nassau and northwestern Suffolk to the upper 70's for most of the rest of Long Island, but cooler for the south shore and east end with highs in the mid 70's. Wind mostly out of the WSW to WNW at 5 mph in the morning and 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tomorrow night: Mostly cloudy with lows in the mid 60's in Nassau and western Suffolk to the upper 50's to low 60's for the rest of Suffolk. Wind mostly out of the WNW at 5 to 10 mph.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny and hot with only a slight chance of a late afternoon or evening shower or thunderstorm with highs mostly in the mid to upper 80's with some areas touching 90 degrees, but cooler for the south shore and east end with highs in the upper 70's to low 80's. Wind out of the NW at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Monday: Partly cloudy and much cooler with highs in the upper 60's to around 70 degrees. Wind of 10 to 15 mph mostly out of the NW in the morning and SSE in the afternoon.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy and breezy in the afternoon with highs mostly in the low 70's.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and very warm to hot with highs in the mid to upper 80's, but cooler for the south shore and east end, and there is a slight chance of a thunderstorm by late afternoon or evening.

Thursday: Partly cloudy with highs mostly in the upper 70's.


TROPICS:

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021 1. A non-tropical low pressure area located about 500 miles east-northeast of Bermuda is producing winds to storm force and disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The low is expected to move west-southwestward over warmer waters during the next day or so, and it will likely become a subtropical cyclone later today or on Saturday near or to the northeast of Bermuda. Thereafter, the low is forecast to move northeastward into a more hostile environment by Saturday night or Sunday. Additional information on this low pressure area can be found in High Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center and forecast products, including a tropical storm watch, issued by the Bermuda Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. 2. A surface trough and a mid- to upper-level disturbance over the western Gulf of Mexico are producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for development before the disturbance moves inland over the northwestern Gulf coast tonight. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana during the next few days. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


- 1st image: My 5 day outlook for Long Island

- 2nd image: From the National Hurricane Center

- 3rd image: Severe weather potential for Sunday and Sunday night from the Storm Prediction Center

- 4th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS model blend

- 5th image: Projected rainfall through 8 PM next Thursday from the Weather Prediction Center

- 6th to 9th images: Projected highs for today through Monday, respectively, from the NWS












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