The Long Island forecast with some comments and maps:
- For Long Island, after a chance of an early morning shower, most of today looks dry with only a very slight chance of an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm. There is a much better chance after around 6 to 7 PM (see 4th and 5th images; the HRRR is more bullish than the NAM on thunderstorms with heavy downpours).
- It still looks like the potential for wind gusts over 50 mph for the North Carolina coast (see 6th image) on Monday when the tropical system moves through.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Today: Chance of an early morning shower and then partly sunny and warmer with only a 20% chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. Highs ranging from the upper 80's for northern Nassau and northwestern Suffolk to the upper 70's to low 80's as you head towards the south shore and eastern Suffolk. Wind out of the WSW at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Tomorrow night: Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of some showers and thunderstorms. Lows mostly in the mid to upper 60's. Wind mostly out of the WSW at around 10 mph.
Tomorrow (Father's Day): Mostly sunny with highs mostly in the mid 80's, but some upper 80's in northern Nassau and cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the WSW at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and out of the SSW at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Monday: Mostly sunny, more humid, and breezy in the afternoon with highs mostly in the low to mid 80's, but some upper 80's in northern Nassau and cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the S at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and around 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy and humid with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms, mostly in the afternoon and evening. There is the potential for heavy downpours. Highs mostly in the upper 70's to low 80's. Wind out of the SSW at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and less humid with highs mostly in the mid 70's. Wind out of the NW at 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday: Sunny with low humidity with highs in the upper 70's.
Friday: Mostly sunny with highs in the upper 70's.
- 1st image: Severe weather potential from 8 AM today to 8 AM tomorrow from the Storm Prediction Center
- 2nd image: Projected highs for today from the NWS
- 3rd image: My 5 day outlook for Long Island
- 4th and 5th images: Simulated radar for 7 PM from the HRRR and NAM, respectively
- 6th image: Maximum projected wind gusts in knots from the Euro
- 7th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS model blend