The next rain/wind event, potential pre-Thanksgiving snow, future Hurricane Iota and LI forecast:
A cold front will move through Long Island Sunday evening/night bringing rain from around 4 PM to midnight with wind gust potential of 25 mph in the afternoon, 30 mph in the evening, and 40 mph overnight, decreasing to 30 mph Monday afternoon. A Wind Advisory can't be ruled out.
Some of the Euro ensembles are starting to show snow, even for Long Island, right before Thanksgiving. However, I'm not expecting snow on Long Island. The 1st image shows the projected snowfall for the next 15 days (through 7 AM on Black Friday) from the Euro ensemble mean. The 2nd image shows the projected snowfall for Long Island for the next 15 days as a running total from every Euro ensemble member.
Invest 98L will likely become Tropical Storm Iota this weekend and then Hurricane Iota shortly thereafter. It has a chance to become a major hurricane, and it will likely head westward into Central America. The HWRF is showing it becoming strong enough that it gains some latitude, but this doesn't look like a threat to come northwards towards the United States. The 3rd and 4th images show the 18z tracks from various models and the Euro ensembles for the next 15 days, respectively.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Tonight: Cloudy with some scattered showers with lows mostly in the mid 40's.
Tomorrow (Friday): Light rain in the morning, tapering off to scattered showers in the afternoon. Some breaks are sun are possible in Nassau before the sun sets. Highs in the low to mid 50's.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with highs in the low 50's.
Sunday: Increasing clouds and windy with showers developing in the late afternoon from west to east. Highs in the upper 50's to near 60 degrees. Wind gusts up to 25 or 30 mph from the south are possible in the afternoon. Rainy and windy in the evening as the cold front comes through with gusts up to 35 mph.
Monday: Mostly sunny and windy with highs in the mid to upper 50's. Wind gusts up to 30 mph from the west.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and breezy with highs only in the upper 40's.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and cold with highs in the low 40's.