The snow mystery continues as models diverge:
Firstly, there will be some systems moving through the northeast today and tomorrow with some snow for NY state and New England (see 6th image). Long Island should stay dry today, but there is a chance of some sprinkles or flurries as the cold front comes through tomorrow mid to late afternoon. It will be a very cold weekend as it will be windy, especially Saturday.
The models have diverged with the storm for Monday night into Tuesday afternoon as the GFS, GFS-Parallel, and Canadian all now keep the snow south of Long Island. However, the Euro and UKMET still have snow for Long Island. In general though, it looks like a system mostly for PA and NJ, although I do think Long Island will get some snow. This will not be a big snowstorm though; I am generally thinking 2 to 4 inch potential for Long Island. Almost every Euro ensemble member has some snow for Long Island, with an ensemble mean of 4 inches. The ensemble mean for Boston is only 2 inches, as it should stay mostly south of there.
The models also diverge for late next week, but in general, it looks like there is slight potential for a Mid-Atlantic snowstorm sometime late next week or next weekend. According to the Euro ensembles, while still a low chance, the best chance for Long Island might be around next Sunday (1/31).
In general, it looks like slightly milder temperatures for the first week of February.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Today (Thursday): Varying amounts of clouds and sun, but it should generally be mostly cloudy from mid-morning to mid-afternoon with highs in the low 40's. Wind out of the SW this morning and WSW this afternoon at 10 to 15 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear with lows mostly in the upper 20's to low 30's. Wind out of the WSW at around 10 mph.
Tomorrow (Friday): Mostly sunny, but some more clouds in the mid to late afternoon as the cold front comes through with a chance of some sprinkles or flurries with highs in the low 40's. Becoming breezy by late afternoon with gusts of 15 to 20 mph.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, windy, and cold with highs only around 31 or 32 degrees. Wind gusts up to 30 mph from the NW.
Sunday: Mostly sunny and still a little breezy with highs in the low to mid 30's.
Monday: Increasing clouds with highs in the mid 30's.
Monday night: Cloudy with a 40% chance of snow showers developing towards midnight. Lows in the upper 20's.
Tuesday: Cloudy with a 40% chance of light to moderate snow, ending in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30's. There is the potential for total accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, but there is still some uncertainty.
- 1st image: Projected snowfall through 7 PM Tuesday from the Euro ensemble mean
- 2nd and 3rd images: Maps from the Euro for 7 AM Tuesday and 7 PM Tuesday
- 4th image: Probability of greater than 3 inches of snow through 7 PM Tuesday from the Euro ensembles
- 5th image: Projected storm locations at 7 AM Tuesday from the Euro ensemble members
- 6th image: Projected snowfall through 1 AM Saturday from the HRRR model
- 7th image: Projected wind chill temperatures at 7 AM Sunday from the Euro
- 8th and 9th images: Projected snowfall for Long Island and Boston, respectively, for the next 15 days as a running total from every Euro ensemble member
- 10th image: Projected temperatures with ranges for Long Island for the next 15 days from the Euro ensembles
- 11th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend