This is why I am calling for a Cat 4:
- First, keep in mind that the official NHC forecast is for a strong Cat 2. Always pay attention to official information. - Not only will the wind shear be low and the atmosphere moist, but the storm is projected to cross an area of not only very warm water temperatures (1st image), but the oceanic heat content, which also takes into account how deep the warm water extends, is extremely high (2nd and 3rd images). The 4th image shows water temperatures of 86 degrees extending more than 40 meters below the surface! It should strengthen right up until landfall. The only thing that may prevent it from reaching Cat 4 status is time. However, last year Delta went to a Cat 4 only 28 hours after reaching tropical storm status. - The new HWRF is running now, so let's see what it shows. - The brand-new GFS ensemble tracks are shown in the 5th image.