Thunderstorms with torrential downpours look really interesting tomorrow evening on Long Island:
Thunderstorms tomorrow evening have the potential to produce torrential downpours, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and possibly hail. The timing for Long Island looks to be between 7 PM and 9 PM. The following is from the National Weather Service covering Long Island and the Tri-State area:
Thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night could produce torrential rainfall as well as gusty winds. These will be developing in a more unstable environment with relatively higher PWAT values near 2 inches. The reason there could be some strong to potentially severe thunderstorms is because of an increase in bulk shear 0-6km to around 25kt. Forecast model soundings show higher winds 35-40 kt between 5 and 15 kft that could be mixed down with thunderstorms. A severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out but the probabilities of these are very low at 5 percent. The threats are a 5 percent risk of damaging winds and a 5 percent risk of large hail. Some models are indicating some MCS potential for the convection Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday moving from north to south across the region.