Tornado threat decreased, but severe thunderstorms still possible for Long Island:
- The Storm Prediction Center has reduced any tornado threat to near zero, but strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are possible on Long Island this afternoon into early evening. Damaging wind gusts greater than 55 mph and 1-inch diameter hail are possible along with heavy downpours and frequent lightning.
- The HRRR and NAM don't seem quite as bullish on more widespread coverage of the storms, so they will generally be hit or miss as opposed to a continuous line of storms.
- Beautiful weather will follow with mostly sunny skies and low humidity for the next couple of days with only slightly higher humidity on Saturday.
- The tropics remain quiet with nothing on the horizon.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Today: Hazy sunshine and humid in the morning and then strong to possibly severe thunderstorms possible between around 3 PM and 6:30 PM with the potential for heavy downpours, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and hail. Highs mostly in the mid 80's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind mostly out of the WNW at around 10 mph, but gusts over 50 mph are possible in strong thunderstorms.
Tonight: Early evening showers and thunderstorms ending and then becoming mostly clear and cooler with lower humidity. Lows in the mid 60's. Wind out of the NNW at 5 to 10 mph.
Tomorrow: Mostly sunny with low humidity with highs in the low 80's. Wind out of the NNW at around 10 mph.
Friday: Mostly sunny with low humidity with highs in the low 80's. Wind out of the NW at 5 to 10 mph.
Saturday: Sunny in the morning and mostly sunny to partly cloudy in the afternoon with low to moderate humidity with highs mostly in the low 80's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind from the N at 5 mph in the morning and then out of the S in the afternoon at around 10 mph.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy and humid with a 40% chance of some occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm with highs in the low 80's. Wind out of the SSW at 10 to 15 mph.
Monday: Partly cloudy, very warm, and humid with only a slight chance of a stray shower or thunderstorm with highs in the mid to upper 80's. Wind mostly out of the W at 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and fairly humid with highs in the mid 80's.
- 1st image: My 5 day forecast for Long Island
- 2nd image: Severe weather potential for today into tonight from the Storm Prediction Center
- 3rd image: Projected highs for today from the NWS
- 4th and 5th images: Future radar from the HRRR at 5 PM and the NAM at 6 PM, respectively
- 6th image: Projected temperatures for Farmingdale, Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS model blend