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Track was nudged northward along the west coast of Florida, but still a good amount of uncertainty:

Please see my previous post for more info, including the Euro wind map, although it might have to be shifted northward. There also seems like a pretty good chance that the storm slows down considerably over northern Florida into possibly Georgia, which is why I posted the Euro rainfall map in my previous post with amounts up to 15 inches possible in Florida. You can see the 10-day Euro ensembles map in the 3rd image, and it shows it only tracking into the southeastern states as it weakens.


The following is from the National Hurricane Center:

There is a large amount of cross-track spread at 72 hours and beyond. In fact, the east-west spread in the guidance at 96 hours is about 180 n mi, with the CTCI and ECMWF along the eastern side of the envelope, and the GFS, HWRF, and GFS ensemble mean along the western side. The overall guidance envelope has shifted slightly westward this cycle, and the NHC track has been nudged in that direction and lies just east of the various consensus aids. Given the spread in the guidance, and the still shifting dynamical models, additional adjustments to the track forecast may be needed in subsequent advisories. Users are reminded that the long-term average NHC 4- and 5-day track errors are around 150 and 200 n mi, respectively.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 14.7N 73.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 14.6N 75.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 15.2N 77.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 16.5N 79.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 18.2N 81.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 20.2N 82.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 22.0N 83.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 25.5N 83.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 28.2N 82.1W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND






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