• My Personal Weatherman

Tropical Depression Twenty-Five expected to become Tropical Storm Gamma later today or tomorrow:

From the National Hurricane Center:

  • KEY MESSAGES: 1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall that could result in life-threatening flash flooding over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, far western Cuba and well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas. 2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm and bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

  • An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today to provide a better intensity estimate.

  • Sea surface temperatures are very warm, near 30 deg C, and vertical shear should remain low for at least the next couple of days, so the cyclone is likely to become a tropical storm by the time it nears the Yucatan Peninsula tomorrow.

  • The main impediment to strengthening over the next few days should be the interaction with land.

  • Given the uncertainties about how far offshore the center will be over the next several days, the official intensity forecast is conservative.

  • For the next couple of days, the system is expected to move northwestward to north-northwestward on the southwestern edge of a mid-level high pressure area. This would take the center near or over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula.

  • After about 48 hours, the steering currents are not well-defined and there is considerable spread in the track models. At this time, it appears the cyclone should move slowly westward over the latter part of the forecast period in response to weak ridging over the north-central Gulf of Mexico.


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