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Tropical Update From the National Hurricane Center

Here is the 8 PM update from the National Hurricane Center:

1. A tropical wave and accompanying broad area of low pressure is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea. This system is gradually becoming better organized, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a couple of days when the system reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This low pressure area is moving westward, and interests in Honduras and the Yucatan Peninsula should closely monitor its progress. Regardless of development, this disturbance will likely produce heavy rains across a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico late this week and this weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system located about 850 miles east of the Windward Islands is gradually becoming better defined. In addition, the associated showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization, and a tropical depression could be forming. The system is expected to move generally west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and interests in the northern Leeward Islands should closely monitor its progress as tropical storm watches could be required as early as this evening.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

3. A tropical wave over western Africa is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This wave is expected to move over the far eastern tropical Atlantic on Friday, and some slow development is possible through the weekend while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


The 3rd image is the Euro ensembles for the next 10 days.





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