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Tropics and the new GFS ensembles:

Invest 94L in the Atlantic is now up to a 90% chance of subtropical development, and it will likely become a Subtropical Depression later today or tomorrow, and then Subtropical Storm Epsilon by Monday.


The potential system in the western Caribbean will be slow to develop; the NHC is currently giving it a 30% chance of tropical development within the next 5 days. The GFS ensembles (1st image) are showing the most likely track to be generally northward to north-northeastward across Cuba and the Bahamas, but it's far from certain.




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