... with 6 MAJOR hurricanes.
The most likely number of major hurricanes (winds of at least 111 mph) predicted to occur in the North Atlantic is 6, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 3 to 9. The 1991-2020 long-term average is 3.
There are several factors which are likely counteracting the influence of El Niño resulting in this forecast of high activity, including:
Vertical wind shear through the troposphere over the tropical Atlantic is predicted to be lower than previously seen during El Niño events.
Sea surface temperatures are predicted to remain well above average across the tropical North Atlantic during the whole hurricane season.
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