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Writer's pictureMy Personal Weatherman™

UK Met Office updated forecast still predicts VERY active hurricane season...

... with 6 MAJOR hurricanes.


The most likely number of major hurricanes (winds of at least 111 mph) predicted to occur in the North Atlantic is 6, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 3 to 9. The 1991-2020 long-term average is 3. 


There are several factors which are likely counteracting the influence of El Niño resulting in this forecast of high activity, including:

  • Vertical wind shear through the troposphere over the tropical Atlantic is predicted to be lower than previously seen during El Niño events.

  • Sea surface temperatures are predicted to remain well above average across the tropical North Atlantic during the whole hurricane season.





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