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Update on Beta, Teddy (with a Sandy comparison), and Long Island:

Tropical Storm Beta still has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph as it heads for the Texas coast. Rainfall amounts of been lowered slightly again with generally 5 to 10 inches of rain expected, although the National Hurricane Center is saying isolated totals up to 15 inches are possible. However, the peak storm surge has been increased to 3 to 5 feet from San Luis Pass, TX to Sabine Pass, TX including Galveston Bay.


There has been no change to the forecast for Hurricane Teddy as it will pass east of Bermuda and then transition into a large and powerful extratropical storm heading towards Nova Scotia. Here is the Sandy comparison from senior forecaster Eric Blake at the National Hurricane Center: "In many respects, the upcoming trough interaction reminds me of an extratropical transition like Sandy 2012, thankfully happening at a good distance from land, with the GFS/ECMWF models showing pressures into the 940s tomorrow, a slight increase in maximum winds, and a large increase in the size of the tropical-storm-force winds. Beyond Tuesday, the hurricane should become post-tropical near or south of Nova Scotia and be absorbed by a larger extratropical low after day 4 to the northeast of Newfoundland. Little change was made to the official forecast, other than show a small increase tomorrow as the peak extratropical forcing deepens the cyclone. It is still worth noting every model has a rather large and strong post-tropical cyclone near Nova Scotia in 2-3 days, with hazards that will extend a very long way from the center."


Tropical Depression Wilfred is not really worth mentioning as it's expected to dissipate in a few days, and it's not a threat to land.


The remnants of Paulette are south of the Azores and could re-acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics in the next couple of days.


After Beta and Teddy are gone, there should be a lull in tropical activity until early October.


Long Island:


The models continue to signal the potential for a heavy rain event for Long Island and the northeast early next week. Even the National Weather Service covering Long Island and the tri-state area is mentioning the potential for a flash flood inducing rainfall.


Regarding coastal effects for Long Island and the tri-state from Hurricane Teddy, the following is from the National Weather Service:


.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomically, with a recent new moon, tides are running higher. Persistent high pressure based in Northern New England giving persistent NE flow and Hurricane Teddy well out in the Atlantic giving long period swell will make for rough ocean conditions through early next week, including high surf, dangerous rip currents and mainly minor coastal flooding. Surge builds with the piling of water to allow for around 0.5 to 1.5 ft departures above astronomical, which is enough to cause minor coastal flooding. Moderate coastal flooding is a possibility for the ocean shoreline but mainly for the South Shore Bays of Nassau andQueens for Tuesday into Wednesday during high tide cycles with more tidal piling of water from the lingering long period swell and thereby inherent restrictions on tidal drainage. Current hazards are as follows: High surf advisory continues along Southern parts of Long Island and NYC adjacent to the Atlantic in effect until 6AM Tuesday. Wave heights of 6 to 12 ft are forecast. Widespread dune erosion and scattered overwashes expected for the ocean beachfront today through Monday night. High rip current risk continues for all Atlantic Ocean beaches in effect until 8PM Monday. This is mostly because of the large long period swells. Coastal Flood Statements for South Shore Bays of Nassau and Queens for high tide cycles tonight from 10PM until 1AM. Isolated minor coastal flooding is expected. Coastal Flood Advisory for Lower NY Harbor and South Shore Bays of Nassau and Queens from 10AM until 3PM Monday. Widespread minor coastal flooding is expected. Coastal Flood Advisory for Southern parts of Westchester and Fairfield from 1PM to 5PM Monday. Widespread minor coastal flooding is expected. Coastal Flood Statements for the rest of Long Island shorelines 11AM until 4PM for the south shore Monday and 1PM until 5PM for the north shore. Isolated minor coastal flooding is expected. The high surf of 8-12 ft today into Monday night, which combined with elevated water levels during the times of high tide will likely result in significant and widespread erosion and damage to dune structures. In addition, scattered overwashes are likely, resulting in minor to moderate flooding of roadways and vulnerable structures behind protective dunes. This is depicted in the NOAA/USGS Coastal Change Forecast Viewer, which is showing potential for an erosion and overwash event close to what was seen the October 10th 2019 Nor`easter and possibly during Hurricane Jose swell event.








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