Update on Both Storms (Dual Gulf Coast Landfalls Expected) and Long Island Weather
- First, for Long Island weather, Partly cloudy today with highs mostly in the low to mid 80's. Overall, tomorrow and Sunday will be warm and humid with highs mostly in the mid 80's, but with a chance of some scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly in the afternoons. Otherwise, it will be partly cloudy. Monday and Tuesday should be partly to mostly sunny, very warm, and humid with highs mostly in the upper 80's, but cooler for the south shore and east end and warmer for northern Nassau. There is only a slight chance of a stray shower or thunderstorm each day. There is some uncertainty as to exactly when a cold front will come through next week, but significantly cooler weather is expected next weekend with highs only in the upper 70's.
Tropical Depression Thirteen:
- This is the system that is projected to head towards the Florida Keys. It remains VERY disorganized, and a higher degree of uncertainty exists than normal in the projected intensity since it may not even have a closed circulation right now. For now, the NHC is still projecting it to eventually reach hurricane status, but this is what they said in the forecast discussion: "The possibilities range from the system degenerating to an open wave as seen in the GFS and ECMWF to a major hurricane as seen in the HWRF." There is also uncertainty in the track, as it will be farther south than originally thought, but it's generally expected to pass close to the Florida Keys and then into the Gulf and then towards the Panhandle or central Gulf Coast.
Tropical Depression Fourteen:
- This system also is disorganized, but it's expected to become a strong tropical storm when it makes landfall in the Yucatan and weakens a little. It is then expected to re-strengthen and probably reach hurricane status as it heads generally towards the Louisiana or northeast Texas coast. There is also uncertainty as to whether or not interaction with the other storm causes its forward movement to slow.
- Looking at the last image, which shows the Euro ensembles for the next 15 days, we will get a little break before more action in early to mid September!
- I will have more updates this morning into early afternoon, and then another update tonight after 8:30.
- 1st and 2nd images: From the National Hurricane Center.
- 3rd image: Euro ensembles for the next 10 days.
- 4th image: Projected rainfall for the next 7 days from the Weather Prediction Center
- 5th image: GFS ensembles (upgraded version) for the next 6 days.
- 6th and 7th images: Early 06Z track guidance for each storm.
- 8th image: Projected highs for today from the National Weather Service.
- 9th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service.
- 10th image: Projected temperatures with ranges for Long Island for the next 15 days from the Euro ensembles.
- 11th image: Euro ensembles for the next 15 days