Update on Both Tropical Storms and Long Island Weather
- Tropical Storm Laura: Maximum sustained winds are down to 40 mph, but slow strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the National Hurricane Center is now projecting a peak intensity of 85 mph, and I think that could go higher. From the NHC: Over the Gulf of Mexico, warm water and a likely favorable shear environment should allow Laura to become a hurricane, a scenario now supported by much of the guidance. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near or over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this morning, near or over Hispaniola this afternoon and tonight, and near or over eastern Cuba Sunday and Sunday night. The track guidance is spread from the Florida Keys to the western end of Cuba as the storm enters the Gulf of Mexico, and the models have potential landfall locations along the Gulf coast from the Florida Panhandle to the middle Texas coast. RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, the southern Haitian Peninsula and eastern Cuba through Sunday. Maximum amounts up to 8 inches are possible along eastern portions and the southern slopes of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti, the Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, as well as an increased potential for mudslides with minor river flooding in Puerto Rico. 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches is expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain more uncertain than usual since Laura is forecast to move near or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday. However, Laura could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida early next week and the northern U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. Interests there should monitor the progress of Laura and updates to the forecast during the next few days.
- Tropical Storm Marco: Maximum sustained winds are up to 45 mph. It's projected to reach a peak intensity of 70 mph. Wind shear is expected to cause weakening before landfall. Large-scale guidance generally agree that any binary direct or indirect interaction, while both systems are in the gulf and at near equal latitude, is unlikely at this point.
- For Long Island, Partly cloudy today and fairly humid with highs mostly in the mid 80's. Partly cloudy and more humid tomorrow with a slight chance of an afternoon/evening shower or thunderstorm. Highs mostly in the mid to upper 80's but cooler for the south shore and east end. Monday and Tuesday will be very warm and humid with highs mostly in the upper 80's with some low 90's possible for northwest Nassau, but cooler for the south shore and east end. There is also a slight chance of a thunderstorm each afternoon/evening. The cold front should come through Tuesday night, so Wednesday and Thursday should be mostly sunny and less humid with highs mostly in the low 80's. It should at least be noted that the Euro and some of the Euro ensembles have the remnants of Laura merging with a frontal system and coming fairly close to Long Island with the potential for strong wind gusts. Nothing to worry about right now, and the odds are very low, but I had to mention it.
- I will have some brief updates later this morning and early afternoon, and then more updates later this afternoon and evening.