• My Personal Weatherman

Update on Eta and its 2nd life and the Long Island forecast with amazing weather ahead:

Eta is continuing to weaken over land and lose tropical characteristics, but what's left of it will eventually re-emerge into the Caribbean and slowly organize. This is what the NHC is saying about it: "Continued weakening will occur over the next 48 hours or so, and the system should degenerate into remnant low tomorrow. In fact, the surface circulation could lose its identity in a day or two. However, the upper-level circulation is likely to remain intact, and a surface cyclone is predicted to regenerate once the system moves into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Some strengthening is forecast thereafter, in line with the intensity model consensus. However, the global models show the system interacting with a strong upper-level trough in 3-5 days, so the cyclone may have some hybrid or subtropical characteristics by that time."

It looks like Eta will end up being a big rain producer for Florida with tropical storm-force winds, but we still have to watch for when it does curve back northeastward, maybe towards the Panhandle.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 13.8N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 14.0N 85.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/0600Z 14.6N 87.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/1800Z 15.5N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0600Z 16.5N 88.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/1800Z 17.6N 87.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 07/0600Z 19.0N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 22.6N 81.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 25.0N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

Long Island forecast:

Today (Wednesday): Mostly sunny with highs in the low 60's.

Tomorrow (Thursday): Mostly sunny with highs in the mid 60's.

Friday: Mostly cloudy in the morning and becoming mostly sunny in the afternoon with highs in the mid 60's. 

Saturday: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 60's.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 60's.

Monday: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 60's.

- 1st image: From the NHC

- 2nd image: Early 06Z track guidance

- 3rd and 4th images: Euro ensembles and GFS ensembles, respectively, each for the next 10 days

- 5th image: Projected precipitation for the next 7 days (through 7 AM next Wednesday) from the Weather Prediction Center)

- 6th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend

3 views0 comments