• My Personal Weatherman

Update on Eta and potential Theta and Iota. Also, great weather, but rain on the way for Long Island

Tropical Storm Eta has passes through the Keys and still has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. Look at how huge the wind field is as the orange shading in the 1st image shows tropical storm-force winds. Eta will start moving WSW and probably become a hurricane tomorrow. The long-term track is uncertain as more of the models now keep it in the Gulf where it eventually decays, but some models still bring it towards the northwest coast of Florida, where it would be weakening on approach.

From the NHC: Due to the poor model agreement beyond a couple of days, the track forecast at the longer range is of low confidence, and large changes are possible if the models converge toward the GFS/UKMET solutions. Beyond a couple of days, depending on exactly where Eta is, the models show an increase in westerly shear, which in combination with the dry air should cause a slow decay. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is also of low confidence since its unclear where Eta will be located later in the week.

In the 2nd image, you can see the 2 other potential systems. The one in the middle of the Atlantic should become Subtropical Storm Theta in a few days as it moves eastward. The system in the Caribbean is now up to a 50% chance of tropical development within the next 5 days, and it could become Tropical Storm Iota later this week or this weekend. The 5th image shows the Euro ensembles for the next 15 days.

For Long Island and the northeast, another sunny and warm day today, but rain is coming for Wednesday and Thursday. Long Island should get 1 to 2 inches of rain with lower amounts to the north in New England. The 4th image shows the projected rainfall through 2 AM Saturday. More rain is expected on Sunday.

Long Island forecast:

Today (Monday): Mostly sunny and warm with highs in the low to mid 70's and very light wind again.

Tomorrow (Tuesday): Partly cloudy with highs in the upper 60's.

Wednesday: Cloudy with rain developing in the afternoon and continuing into the night. Highs in the upper 60's.

Thursday: Rain in the morning could taper off to showers in the afternoon and end by late afternoon or early evening. Temperatures falling from the low to mid 60's in the morning to the upper 50's by late afternoon. Total rainfall for Wednesday and Thursday is expected to be between 1 and 2 inches. 

Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a few showers still. Highs in the mid to upper 50's.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny with highs in the mid 50's.

Sunday: Cloudy with a 60% chance of rain. Highs in the upper 50's.


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