Update on Eta and the Long Island forecast:
Eta is down to a Tropical Depression and probably doesn't have a surface circulation anymore, but this was expected. The NHC is forecasting it to be a 65 mph storm by early next week and it doesn't look likely that it could make it to hurricane strength due to wind shear and the broad nature of the future storm. One change is the slower motion and probably less certainty once it gets into the Gulf of Mexico next week. It is still expected to bring a lot of rain to southern Florida.
The following is from the NHC:
Some re-strengthening is forecast to begin by the weekend. However the expected broad nature of the cyclone and stronger vertical shear are likely to limit strengthening over the next several days.
The official forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions, but leans toward the latter model. This track could take the system near or over portions of extreme southern Florida by late this weekend or early next week, but there is low confidence in the forecast, especially at 3-5 days.
Key Message: Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week. Although the details of the future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys this weekend and early next week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 14.5N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 15.0N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/0600Z 16.2N 87.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1800Z 17.4N 86.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H 07/0600Z 18.5N 84.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 19.6N 82.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 21.0N 81.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 23.5N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 24.5N 81.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
Long Island forecast:
Today (Thursday): Mostly sunny with increasing clouds by late afternoon with highs in the mid 60's.
Tomorrow (Friday): Mostly cloudy early in the morning and becoming mostly sunny in the afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 60's.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 60's.
Sunday: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 60's.
Monday: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 60's.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy with highs in the mid to upper 60's.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 60's.
- 1st image: From the NHC
- 2nd image: Early 06Z track guidance from various models
- 3rd image: Euro ensembles for the next 10 days
- 4th image: Projected rainfall for the next 6 days from the Weather Prediction Center
- 5th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend