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Update on Eta as Watches will be issued later today for southern Florida:

As you can see, the NHC has continued to more the track northward, which is what I posted about last night. They now show it going over the Keys early Monday morning. They are still projecting 65 mph intensity, although they mention that they can't completely rule out it reaching hurricane strength.


The following is from the NHC:

  • There is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and flash and urban flooding due to heavy rainfall in portions of southern Florida, the Florida Keys and portions of the Bahamas this weekend and early next week. Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches will likely be issued later today or tonight for a portion of this area.

  • An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Eta this afternoon, and a NOAA flight is scheduled for this evening.

  • There are a lot of differences in the track forecast details in terms of both the heading and the forward speed, with the GFS-based guidance tending to be to the east and north of the UKMET/ECMWF/Canadian. Overall, the consensus models have shifted a little to the east and north since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is also nudged in those directions.

  • After 72 hrs, dry air entrainment is expected to cause the cyclone to weaken.

  • The wind field of Eta is expected to increase in size during the next few days, and the cyclone will likely produce a large area of tropical-storm-force winds on its north side when it is near Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida.







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