• My Personal Weatherman

Update on Eta with southern Florida wind/rain and the Long Island forecast:

Eta has finally re-emerged into the Caribbean and convection has impressively fired up again with very cold cloud tops. As I posted about last night, the National Hurricane Center did shift the track northward as they now show the center going over the Keys, but it could even go a little farther northeast than that. They are still projecting strong tropical storm strength with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. From the NHC: "The wind field of Eta is expected to increase in size during the next few days, and the cyclone will likely produce a large area of tropical-storm-force winds on its north side when it is near Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida."

I have included maps for the early 06Z track guidance and the Euro ensembles. I have also included the National Weather Service maximum projected wind gusts map for Florida, but keep in mind that it only goes through 8 PM Sunday. Also, the new HWRF run did come in a little stronger with a pressure of 979 with landfall in southern Florida.

One thing to note is that when Eta eventually re-curves northeastward in the general direction of the northwest coast of Florida, it should be in a weaker state.

Long Island forecast:

Today (Friday): Partly to mostly cloudy early and then becoming mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 60's. 

Tomorrow (Saturday): Mostly sunny with highs in the upper 60's.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 60's.

Monday: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 60's.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with highs in the mid to upper 60's.

Wednesday: Cloudy with a 70% chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 60's.

- 1st image: From the NHC

- 2nd image: IR satellite view of Eta

- 3rd image: Maximum projected wind gusts though 8 PM Sunday from the NWS

- 4th image: Early 06Z track guidance from various models

- 5th image: Euro ensembles for the next 10 days

- 6th image: Projected rainfall through 8 AM Wednesday from the WPC

- 7th image: Projected rainfall for the next 7 days from the WPC

- 8th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend


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