Update on Hurricane Laura and Northeast Severe Weather. Also, Important Note on Text Notifications
Regarding text notifications, the new system isn't working as my texts are being viewed as spam, so I will have to look into new options. For now, you can get e-mail notifications if you sign-up in this (MPW Posts) section.
The National Hurricane Center shifted their forecast track (see 1st image) only slightly westward in their 11 AM advisory. Depending on what the 12Z model runs show, I would expect another very slight westward shift when the 5 PM advisory comes out.
The maximum storm surge projection has now been increased to 9 to 13 feet from Sea Rim State Park, TX to Intracoastal City, LA, including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake (see 2nd image).
The Euro is showing maximum waves heights in the Gulf to possibly exceed 70 feet (see 3rd image).
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 23.7N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 24.6N 89.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 26.0N 91.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 28.0N 93.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 30.5N 93.9W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 60H 28/0000Z 33.1N 93.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 28/1200Z 35.2N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 29/1200Z 37.5N 83.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 30/1200Z 40.5N 69.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
The National Hurricane Center is now mentioning that the remnants of Laura could re-intensify somewhat as it becomes extra-tropical. This is something to keep in mind for the mid-Atlantic coast on Saturday (see 5th image).
The last 2 images show the severe weather potential from today through Saturday. For Long Island, the days to watch are today, Thursday, and Saturday. The timing for thunderstorms today on Long Island looks like mostly between 4 PM and 7 PM, but not everyone will get it. Strong wind gusts are the main threat, but hail is also possible.