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Update on Long Island weather and the tropics with a Tropical Depression expected to form today:

Tropics:

- The chances of tropical development for the 2 systems in the Caribbean are 80% and 30%, and the lead system (Invest 91L) is likely to develop into a Tropical Depression later today. It will head into the Yucatan and then likely emerge into the southern Gulf of Mexico and head WSW. There is no imminent threat to the United States. The 2nd system has a chance to come northward towards the Gulf Coast states, but it's too soon to tell.

- The following is from the National Hurricane Center:


1. Satellite imagery indicates that shower activity associated with the broad low pressure are over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form later today or Saturday if the system remains over the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Central America should monitor the progress of this system as it moves generally northwestward, as tropical storm watches or warning may be required for portions of these areas later today or tonight. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains, with possible flash flooding, over portions of southeastern Mexico, Central America, and western Cuba during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. 2. Another tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, accompanied by locally rainfall and gusty winds. This wave is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next several days, and environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development when the system is over the central or western Caribbean Sea early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.


Long Island forecast:


Today: Cloudy and cooler with a 40% chance of some scattered showers this morning into early afternoon. The sun should come out around 2:00 in Nassau and between 3:00 and 4:00 from west to east in Suffolk. Highs only in the low to mid 60's. 

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 60's.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with increasing clouds by late afternoon and evening with highs in the mid to upper 60's.

Monday: Cloudy with a 50% chance of showers with highs in the mid 60's.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 60's.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with highs around 70 degrees. A cold front coming through at night should bring some showers.

Thursday: Mostly sunny and windy with highs mostly in the mid 60's.


- 1st image: From the National Hurricane Center

- 2nd image: Euro ensembles for the next 15 days

- 3rd image: Projected tracks for Invest 91L from various models

- 4th image: IR satellite video

- 5th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend

- 6th image: Projected rainfall for the next 7 days from the Weather Prediction Center








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