Update on Long Island Weather and Tropical Depression Thirteen (Future Laura)
- Invest 98L has become Tropical Depression Thirteen, and it's expected to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Laura later today. You can see the forecast track generally towards the Florida Keys and then into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. While the hurricane center is only forecasting it to strengthen to 70 mph in 5 days, I think there is a good chance it will strengthen into a hurricane by that time and possibly a Cat 2 as it tracks northwestward towards the central to eastern Gulf coast.
- This is what the National Hurricane Center is saying about the potential future intensity: Overall, the environment looks generally favorable for strengthening, with the cyclone expected to encounter light to moderate shear during forecast period. However, the guidance responds to this environment with a wide range of solutions. The HWRF/HMON forecast the cyclone to intensify into a major hurricane by 120 h. On the other hand, the GFS and ECMWF show the system degenerating into an open wave by 120 h. The UKMET and Canadian models are between these extremes.
- Invest 97L is also expected to become a Tropical Depression in a couple of days, and it could head towards the western Gulf coast early next week as a Tropical Storm.
- I will continue to update with the latest information from the models and the National Hurricane Center.
Long Island forecast:
- Today: A beautiful day with mostly sunny skies and low humidity with highs mostly in the upper 70's to near 80 degrees.
- Tomorrow: Mostly sunny and warmer with moderate levels of humidity with highs mostly in the low to mid 80's.
- Saturday: Partly cloudy and more humid with a 20% chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Highs mostly in the mid 80's, but some upper 80's are possible in northwest Nassau.
- Sunday: Varying amounts of clouds and sun with a 40% chance of some showers and thunderstorms. It will be humid with highs mostly in the mid to upper 80's.
- Monday and Tuesday: Mostly sunny and fairly humid with highs mostly in the upper 80's with some low 90's possible away from the south shore and east end. There is a slight chance of a stray shower or thunderstorm each day.
Here are the key messages for TD13 (future Laura) from the NHC:
1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the northern Leeward Islands by Friday night, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for some of these islands. Heavy rainfall is likely across this area beginning late Friday.
2. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions in the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico Friday night and Saturday and Tropical Storm Watches could be required for these islands later today. Interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system.
3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions of the Greater Antilles this weekend. However, this system could bring some rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early next week. Interests there should monitor this system's progress and updates to the forecast over the next few days.
- 1st and 2nd images: From the National Hurricane Center for Tropical Depression Thirteen.
- 3rd image: Euro ensembles for the next 10 days.
- 4th image: IR Satellite image for Tropical Depression Thirteen.
- 5th and 6th images: Early 06Z track guidance for Tropical Depression Thirteen and Invest 97L.
- 7th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend.
- 8th image: Projected rainfall for the next 7 days from the Weather Prediction Center.