• My Personal Weatherman

Update on Long Island weather (with another tornado threat), tropics, the app, and a vacation note:


I will still be posting updates (although not as frequently), but I am leaving this morning to go to the Finger Lakes region of upstate NY with my wife and daughter (and her friend). I will be back Tuesday evening.


  • Thank you so much to all of you as the response has greatly exceeded my expectations!

  • I am still exploring options for the text notifications, and I have narrowed it down to two potential options in which the costs are not quite as exorbitant (although still expensive) as some of the others, but are much more technically challenging.

  • My wife thinks (and I agree, of course, lol) that I should add a separate section that will have a really brief Long Island at-a-glance forecast, so that will also be likely add in the near future.

  • As we get closer to winter, I will also be adding another section that will have an interactive map where you can see observed snowfall totals over the past 24, 48, or 72 hours. It will allow you to zoom in on any area of the country.

  • I may also be doing a 3-day free trial early next month for those that would like to try it out first before paying.


There are 2 current areas to watch, and each have been given a 30% chance of tropical development within the next 5 days by the National Hurricane Center. There will also be more systems coming off of Africa behind these that will have a chance to develop, so I'm expecting a lot of action in September!

Long Island:

- Today: Partly cloudy with moderate humidity this morning into mid-afternoon, and then it will become more humid with increasing clouds towards evening. Highs will be mostly in the low to mid 80's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. There will be a steadily increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening into tonight.

- Tomorrow: Very humid and tropical with periods of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day with very heavy downpours at times. There will be breaks in the action though. Some thunderstorms may be severe with damaging wind gusts, but the overall potential isn't as high as yesterday. Western and central Long Island have also been placed in the 2% probability zone of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of a given location. Dew points will be in the low 70's and high temperatures will be in the upper 70's.

- Sunday: It will be a night-and-day difference from tomorrow as it will be mostly sunny with low humidity with a dry breeze out of the northwest. Highs will be mostly in the upper 70's.

- Monday: Partly to mostly sunny with low humidity with highs mostly in the mid 70's.

- Tuesday: There is some uncertainty, but it looks like increasing clouds and becoming more humid by late afternoon with a chance of showers developing by evening. Highs mostly in the upper 70's.

- Wednesday: It's a relatively low-confidence forecast, but some showers possibly ending in the morning with partly cloudy conditions in the afternoon. It will be warmer and more humid with highs around 80 degrees.

- 1st image: From the National Hurricane Center.

- 2nd image: Tornado probability for tomorrow into tomorrow night from the Storm Prediction Center.

- 3rd image: Euro ensembles for the next 15 days.

- 4th image: Precipitable water map from the Euro for 4 PM tomorrow.

- 5th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend.

- 6th image: Projected rainfall through 8 AM Sunday from the Weather Prediction Center.

- 7th to 9th images: Simulated radar from the NAM for tomorrow at 6 AM, 3 PM, and 8 PM, respectively.

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