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Update on Marco, Laura, and Long Island Weather With Thunderstorms in the Forecast

I will have more updates throughout the day.


Tropical Storm Marco:

As I have been posting about, I have not been as concerned with Marco as it would weaken on approach due to wind shear, and that's what has happened. Maximum sustained winds are now 60 mph and that may be generous. Here is some info from the National Hurricane Center: "Some large changes have been required on this forecast. Considering the shear is only forecast to increase, there is no significant chance that Marco re-intensifies to a hurricane, and the hurricane warnings have been replaced with tropical storm warnings. Furthermore, now that the storm is losing vertical coherence, the intensity forecast has been decreased as well. Marco will likely dissipate in a couple of days near the Texas/Louisiana border due to continued strong shear. Guidance has come into better agreement on the track going slightly inland or just brushing the Louisiana coast, and the track has been nudged southward on this advisory. It should be noted that the heaviest rain and strongest winds will likely be northeast of the center, so users should not focus on the exact track of the cyclone."


Tropical Storm Laura:

Maximum sustained winds are now up to 65 mph, and Laura is expected to become a hurricane by tomorrow night. There is still uncertainty in the projected track and intensity at landfall. The National Hurricane Center is projecting a peak intensity of 105 mph, but they mention the potential for it to be stronger than that. I think there is a good chance it will be a Cat 3 at landfall. A period of rapid intensification is likely due to very favorable conditions once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. From late Wednesday into Friday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower Mississippi Valley.


Long Island:

- Today: Partly cloudy, very warm, and humid with highs mostly in the upper 80's to around 90 degrees, but cooler for the south shore and east end. There is a 30% chance of some scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening.

- Tomorrow: Partly to mostly sunny, very warm, and humid with highs in the upper 80's to low 90's. There is a chance of some isolated strong to severe thunderstorms from mid-afternoon into early evening with the potential for strong wind gusts and a slight chance of hail. Coverage of these storms will not be widespread though.

- Wednesday: Mostly sunny, cooler, and much less humid with highs mostly around 80 degrees. It will also be breezy with a northwest wind at 10 to 20 mph.

- Thursday: Partly cloudy and becoming warmer and more humid by late afternoon and evening with a 50% chance of thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening. Highs mostly in the low to mid 80's.

- Friday and Saturday: It will be warm and humid with a chance of showers and thunderstorms with the potential for heavy downpours between Friday afternoon and Saturday evening. The exact timing will depend on the track of the remnants of Laura and how it interacts with a frontal system coming down from Canada.

- Sunday: Mostly sunny, cooler, and less humid with highs only in the upper 70's.


- 1st image: Euro ensembles for the next 10 days.

- 2nd and 3rd images: From the National Hurricane Center for Laura and Marco, respectively.

- 4th image: Projected rainfall for the next 7 days from the Weather Prediction Center.

- 5th image: Severe weather potential for tomorrow and tomorrow night from the Storm Prediction Center.

- 6th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend.








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