*Update on Paulette, Sally, and the new Tropical Depression Twenty (Teddy by tomorrow night)*
Paulette, Sally, and Tropical Depression Twenty are all forecast to become hurricanes!
Paulette is expected to become a hurricane tonight and will impact Bermuda tomorrow night into Monday as a Category 2 hurricane with wind gusts over 100 mph. From the NHC: "Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on Sunday and be near the island Sunday night and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected on Bermuda beginning Sunday evening, and a hurricane warning is in effect for the island. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion."
Sally is the major problem for the United States as it will become a hurricane, possibly Cat 2, by the time it gets near New Orleans and coastal MS. Peak storm surge is currently estimated at 6 to 9 feet, but that may go higher. Rainfall totals could be as high as 12 to 18 inches in some spots (see all images below). The following is from the National Hurricane Center:
KEY MESSAGES: 1. Life threatening storm surge is possible along the Gulf Coast beginning on Monday, and a Storm Surge Watch is in effect for areas outside the southeast Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are possible by early Tuesday from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border, including Metropolitan New Orleans, with tropical storm conditions possible by Monday. 3. Sally is expected to produce flash flooding across portions of southern Florida and prolong existing minor river flooding across central Florida through Sunday. Flash, urban, and minor to moderate river flooding is likely across portions of the central Gulf Coast from Sunday through the middle of next week. 4. Tropical storm conditions are possible early next week in portions of the Florida Panhandle, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force could occur over portions of the southern Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys this evening.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...6-9 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...4-6 ft MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border, including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka, FL, including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible within the watch area by Monday. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible across the southern portion of the Florida peninsula through this evening, especially over the Florida Keys. RAINFALL: Sally is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches over southern Florida and the Florida Keys through tonight. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected along the west coast of Florida through Sunday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding across southern Florida and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida. Sally is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches across the Florida Panhandle, and 6 to 12 inches with isolated amounts of 18 inches over the Central Gulf Coast from Sunday into the middle of next week. Sally is expected to be a slow moving system that will continue to produce heavy rainfall and considerable flooding near the central Gulf Coast through the middle of next week. Flash, urban and rapid onset flooding along small streams and minor to moderate flooding on rivers is likely.
Invest 95L has become Tropical Depression Twenty, and it's expected to become Tropical Storm Teddy by tomorrow night, and then Hurricane Teddy next week. However, it's expected to turn northwest well before getting near the Leeward Islands.