Update on potential for Epsilon and Zeta to form:
The system to the ESE of Bermuda will likely become a named storm first; the National Hurricane Center has increased its chance of tropical or subtropical development within the next 5 days to 40%. The next "name" on the list is Epsilon. It could affect Bermuda next week, but there is still some uncertainty.
The bigger threat is from the potential system in the SW Caribbean, as it has a chance to become a hurricane (probably named Zeta) in about 7 to 9 days and head generally north to northeast. The greatest risk is likely for the following areas: Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Florida, the Bahamas, and Bermuda.
The following is from the National Hurricane Center:
1. Shower activity associated with a broad non-tropical low pressure system located about 600 miles east-southeast of Bermuda has become a little better organized this morning. Additional gradual tropical or subtropical development of this system is possible through the middle of next week while the low meanders over the central Atlantic well to the southeast of Bermuda. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. 2. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form early next week over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system will be possible through the middle of next week while it remains nearly stationary over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
- 1st image: GFS ensembles for the next 15 days
- 2nd image: From the National Hurricane Center
- 3rd image: The new 06Z Euro ensembles, which only go out 6 days