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Update on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine and Long Island Weather

- Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine still does not have a closed center of circulation, but it's expected to do so later today and will likely be classified Tropical Storm Isaias by 5 PM. Despite not being a tropical system, it still has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, and it has very deep convection, as shown in the 2nd image. Since the center will likely have formed farther southwest than originally anticipated, the center will pass south of Puerto Rico and then over Hispaniola, with its mountainous terrain. The NHC is forecasting the maximum sustained winds to get up to 60 mph before landfall in Hispaniola, which will weaken it. Some re-intensification is then likely before it approaches Florida, as they are forecasting it to get up to 65 mph, but there is uncertainty. Keep in mind, that we generally are much better at forecasting track than intensity. The 3rd image shows the early 06Z track guidance, and the 4th image is the Euro ensemble tracks.

Long Island forecast: - The Euro and the Euro ensembles are showing a good amount of rain for Long Island over the next week or two. The Euro ensemble mean is showing 3 to 4 inches in the next 2 weeks (see 5th image). - Today: Mostly sunny with highs mostly in the upper 80's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. There will also be some 90 degree readings for northern and western sections. - Tomorrow: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm by late in the day or at night. Highs mostly in the upper 80's again. - Friday: There is some uncertainty, but there is generally a 40% chance of some showers in the morning into early afternoon. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy with highs mostly in the mid 80's. - Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny with highs mostly in the mid 80's. - Sunday: There is some uncertainty, but generally partly cloudy and humid with a 30% chance of some showers. Highs mostly in the mid 80's. The Euro is showing more in the way of rain, but it's possible most of the showers hold off until evening. - Humid for Monday and Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms at times.

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