Update on strengthening Sally, Bermuda in the eye of Paulette, and Long Island weather:
Overview of tropics:
- See below for details on Tropical Storm Sally. Bermuda is currently in the eye of Hurricane Paulette (see 1st image) after experiencing wind gusts close to 100 mph. Tropical Depression Twenty will likely become Tropical Storm Teddy by tonight and then a powerful Category 3 hurricane by late this week, but it's not a threat to land, although Bermuda should keep an eye on it. There are 2 other potential tropical systems in the eastern Atlantic; one of them could become a short-lived tropical storm, and the other will track westward fairly far to the south.
Tropical Storm Sally:
- Sally (currently at 60 mph maximum sustained winds) is becoming better organized and steady strengthening is expected now through landfall tomorrow morning near the LA/MS border. It could become a high-end Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph maximum sustained winds. Storm surge as high as 7 to 11 feet is expected. Since it will be a slow-moving hurricane as it nears the coast and moves inland, tremendous rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches are expected on the east side of the storm, with locally higher amounts possible. See all images below for more information. The following are the key messages from the National Hurricane Center:
1. It is too early to determine where Sally's center will move onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally's northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's average forecast error at 48 hours is around 80 miles, and dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the center. 2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected by late today within portions of the Hurricane Warning area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including Metropolitan New Orleans, with tropical storm conditions likely to begin by late this morning. Preparations should be rushed to completion in those areas. 4. Sally could continue to produce flash flooding across central and northern Florida and prolong existing minor river flooding across west-central Florida through today. Widespread significant flash flooding and minor to isolated major river flooding is likely across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama through the middle of the week. Flooding impacts are expected to spread farther across the Southeast U.S. through the week.
Long Island forecast:
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT TUESDAY...
Today: Mostly cloudy early in the morning and then becoming mostly sunny with decreasing humidity throughout the day. It will also be breezy with wind gusts up to 20 mph from the north in the afternoon and evening. Highs mostly in the upper 70's. Crystal clear skies, breezy, and chilly tonight!
Tuesday: Sunny and cooler with very low humidity with highs only in the upper 60's!
Wednesday: Mostly sunny with low humidity with highs mostly in the low to mid 70's.
Thursday: Increasing clouds and humidity with highs mostly in the upper 70's. Some showers are possible at night from a cold front.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. There is still some uncertainty though as we watch the remnants of Sally, of which we could be on the northern fringe. Highs mostly in the low 70's.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with low humidity with highs mostly in the mid to upper 60's.
Sunday: Mostly sunny with low humidity with highs mostly in the mid 60's.
- 1st image: Bermuda in the eye of Hurricane Paulette
- 2nd to 5th images: Maps and current view of Sally
- 6th image: Overview of the tropics
- 7th image: Projected rainfall through 8 Pm Sunday from the Weather Prediction Center
- 8th image: Euro ensembles for Tropical Depression Twenty (future Hurricane Teddy?)
- 9th image: High Surf Advisory and Rip Current Risk for Long Island
- 10th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend.