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Update on the active tropics and the changeable weather for Long Island:

Tropics:

There are 2 tropical storms and 4 areas that the National Hurricane Center is monitoring for tropical development. The main system that I am watching is the storm that just came off the coast of Africa and will likely become Sally in a couple of days. There is a lot of uncertainty in the future track, but it's a potential long-term threat to the Caribbean and the United States.

  • Tropical Storm Rene won't be a threat to land as it will stay out in the middle of the Atlantic, although it's expected to briefly reach hurricane status this weekend.

  • Tropical Storm Paulette is a potential threat to Bermuda and will need to be watched closely as it is now expected to become a hurricane early next week when it's potentially near Bermuda.

  • Invest 94L off the coast of North Carolina has weakened to a trough and it's extremely unlikely that tropical development takes place as it will be moving into North Carolina this afternoon.

  • A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorm is centered a couple of hundred miles northeast of the Central Bahamas. This system is forecast to drift westward and will likely be in the vicinity of the Florida peninsula on Friday. Afterward, upper-level conditions could become conducive for some development this weekend while the system drifts west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

  • For the system that is expected to become Sally: A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa later today. Gradual development is anticipated once the system moves over water, and a tropical depression is expected to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves generally westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

  • Another tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa this weekend. Environmental conditions could be conducive for slow development over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean early next week while the wave moves slowly westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Long Island:

Today: Very humid with periods of showers and thunderstorms with heavy downpours at times with temps mostly in the mid to upper 70's. Heavy rain early this morning is streaming up from the south into western Long Island. There should be a break for a time this morning into this afternoon before more widespread showers and possibly thunderstorms move through for late this afternoon and this evening.

Tomorrow: Showers ending very early in the morning, and becoming partly cloudy with decreasing humidity throughout the day. Highs mostly in the mid 70's.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny with low humidity with highs mostly in the low 70's.

Sunday: Cloudy with increasing humidity with an increasing chances of showers from the afternoon into the evening. Highs mostly in the mid to upper 70's. There is some uncertainty in the exact timing of the start of the rain as it may hold off for most of the day. Periods of heavy rain will be possible at night.

Monday: Showers probably ending in the morning with partial clearing in the afternoon with decreasing humidity throughout the day. Highs mostly in the mid to upper 70's.

Tuesday: Sunny with very low humidity with highs only in the upper 60's to around 70 degrees!

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with low humidity with highs mostly in the low 70's.


- 1st image: Euro ensembles for the next 15 days

- 2nd image: Overview map from the National Hurricane Center

- 3rd and 4th images: Official forecast maps for Paulette and Rene, respectively, from the National Hurricane Center

- 5th image (video): IR satellite video showing Paulette, Rene, and the next 2 potential systems

- 6th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend

- 7th image: Projected rainfall through 2 PM Tuesday from the Euro ensemble mean











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