- No real changes to the general thinking. The Long Island forecast is below, but generally we have quiet and fairly cold weather the next few days. The rain probably won't start until around between 4 PM and 7 PM from west to east on Thursday late afternoon into early evening. It will also become increasingly windy later in the day and at night and especially on Friday where wind gusts over 50 mph are possible/probable with periods of heavy throughout the day with some heavy downpours possible in the morning. I stand by my thinking that at least a Wind Advisory will be needed, and I wouldn't rule out a High Wind Warning for eastern Suffolk. The Euro ensemble mean max gusts is an incredible 60 mph, which is impressive for an ensemble mean 4 days before the storm. The NWS is saying they are already with gusts up to 46 mph and that it may have to be increased. Total rainfall should be around 2 to 2.5 inches for Long Island. The temps will reach close to 60 degrees Friday early afternoon and then begin to rapidly drop between around 3 PM and 7 PM from west to east and fall into the low to mid 20's by midnight and then possibly into the upper teens. A snow shower in the evening is possible, as well as a flash freeze, although it likely won't be widespread, but some black ice will likely occur. Windy and very cold for Christmas Eve and still very cold and breezy on Christmas with highs both days in the upper 20's to near 30 degrees with wind chills in the morning in the single digits.
- I have included all of the maps below, including the last 4 images which shows maps for the storm at 4 different times.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Today: Sunny and breezy with highs in the upper 30's. Wind out of the WNW to NW at 10 to 20 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear and breezy with lows in the upper 20's. Wind out of the NW at 10 to 20 mph.
Tomorrow: Sunny with highs in the upper 30's. Wind out of the NW at 10 to 15 mph.
Tomorrow night: Mostly clear with lows in the mid 20's. Wind out of the NNW at 5 to 10 mph.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny with highs in the upper 30's to around 40 degrees. Wind out of the N at 5 to 10 mph..
Thursday: Cloudy with rain developing in the late afternoon to possibly early evening from west to east and becoming windy late with highs near 50 degrees. Wind out of the ENE at 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Friday: Rain, heavy at times in the morning, and very windy with the potential for wind gusts over 50 mph from the south with highs in the upper 50's and then falling rapidly in the late afternoon and evening into the upper teens to low 20's at night. Total rainfall is expected to be around 2.0 to 2.5 inches. A snow shower is possible in the evening with very windy conditions continuing.
Saturday (Christmas Eve): Partly cloudy, very windy, and very cold with highs only in the upper 20's to near 30 degrees and wind chill temperatures in the single digits to low teens. Wind out of the W at 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
Sunday (Christmas): Sunny and a little breezy with highs in the upper 20's to near 30 degrees. Wind out of the W at 10 to 20 mph.
- 1st image: My 5 day forecast for Long Island
- 2nd and 3rd images: Projected snowfall and precipitation from the NWS Model Blend through 7 AM on Christmas for the snow map and through 7 AM on Christmas Eve for the precipitation map
- 4th image: Maximum projected wind gusts in knots through Friday night from the Euro
- 5th and 6th images: Projected temps for Long Island
- 7th to 10th images: Maps from the Euro for Friday at 1 AM, 7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM
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