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Update on the heat, an increasing chance of Elsa, heavy downpours, and the Long Island forecast:

- One more very hot and humid day with the Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM for Long Island with the exception of southeastern Suffolk for heat index temperatures as high as 104 degrees. There is also an Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM.

- Invest 97L is becoming better organized, and the NHC is now giving it a 70% chance of tropical development within the next 5 days. The GFS ensembles continue to more bullish on it holding together through the Caribbean than the Euro ensembles. See all images below, and I will continue to update.

- There is a severe weather threat for New England today into tonight with the potential for a tornado and large hail in VT, NH, and ME. Strong thunderstorms will damaging wind gusts are likely in MA. Any storms will likely weaken before getting to Long Island, but we can expect some scattered showers or a thunderstorm this evening into tonight.

- There will be showers and thunderstorms on Thursday into Thursday night on Long Island with some heavy downpours and the potential for flash flooding. 1.5 to 3 inches of rain are likely on Long Island and in southern New England through Saturday.

- The coverage of showers decreases this weekend and 4th of July should be decent with partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70's with only a 30% chance of a shower or two.


LONG ISLAND FORECAST:

Today: Mostly sunny, hot, and humid with a 20% chance of a thunderstorm in the late afternoon with highs mostly in the low to mid 90's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Heat index temperatures will be as high as 104 degrees. Wind out of the SW to SSW at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: A 60% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, otherwise partly cloudy and humid with lows in the low 70's. Wind out of the SW at around 10 mph.

Tomorrow: Partly to mostly cloudy and humid in the morning with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm and then an increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms with the potential for heavy downpours and flash flooding in the afternoon and especially the evening. Highs mostly in the low to mid 80's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the W to WSW at around 10 mph.

Friday: Cloudy and cooler with rain in the morning and still some showers in the afternoon. Highs in the mid to upper 70's. Variable wind direction with wind speeds of around 10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of some scattered showers. Highs in the mid 70's. Wind mostly out of the NNE at around 10 mph.

4th of July (Sunday): Partly sunny with only a 30% chance of a couple of scattered showers. Highs in the upper 70's. Variable wind direction at 5 to 10 mph.

Monday: Partly sunny with a slight chance of a shower. Highs mostly in the low 80's, but cooler for the south shore and east end.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 80's.


- 1st image: My 5 day outlook for Long Island

- 2nd image: Projected heat index temperatures at 11 AM from the HRRR model

- 3rd image: From the NHC

- 4th and 5th images: GFS ensembles and Euro ensembles for the next 10 days, respectively

- 6th image: Track guidance for Invest 97L from various models

- 7th image: Severe weather potential for today into tonight

- 8th image: Projected rainfall through the 4th of July from the Weather Prediction Center. Very little rain is projected to fall on the 4th of July.

- 9th image: Intensity guidance for Invest 97L from various models

- 10th image: Projected temperatures for Farmingdale, Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS model blend














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