Update on the heat, humidity, and the thunderstorm threat before the nicer weather:

- Hot again today, but the humidity won't be quite as high before it increases tonight with very high humidity for tomorrow.

- Complex scenario for thunderstorms tomorrow with some scattered thunderstorms moving through in the morning with the main action in the afternoon into early evening with the cold front. Very heavy downpours along with the possibility of locally strong wind gusts are the main threats, but a brief tornado can't be ruled out as well. I'm sure you want to know exactly when and where there will be thunderstorms, but this from the NWS NY shows the complexity:

"A relatively strong cold front will move across the area in the afternoon and evening. There may be some initial shortwave energy that moves across in the morning. Given that instability will be on the increase, cannot rule out some elevated convection in the morning. The chances for convection appear higher in the afternoon and evening with the cold front passage. Several CAMs are hinting at a frontal wave on the front as it moves into the area. This could enhance the coverage of convection and potentially the severe weather threat. Confidence in the location of this wave is very low at this time. The CAMs have also been inconsistent with many of the recent events with regards to placement/timing of specific mesoscale features and the resulting convection. Model soundings, specifically the GFS, indicate a middle level cap holding on until the cold front passage in the late afternoon and evening. The NAM/NAMnest indicates a cap in the morning, but it weakens quickly in the afternoon with a line of convection moving with the front late in the day. There is enough evidence to support raising PoPs to likely in the afternoon and evening from N to S give falling heights and convergence along the front. Forecast confidence is still relatively low on coverage of severe weather, but the atmosphere appears to become quite unstable with CAPES close to 2500 J/kg. 0-6 km bulk shear values may also range from 35 to 40 kt. The overall convective evolution should continue to become clearer over the next 24 hours. The main severe threat is from damaging wind gusts. A localized brief tornado cannot be ruled out as there is some directional low level shear on the latest soundings. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in any thunderstorm leading to potential of localized flash flooding."

- Much lower humidity then from Sunday into at least Wednesday. Rain then looks to arrive around Friday.

- Nothing to worry about in the tropics as Emily should eventually form, but it will stay well east of even Bermuda (see 6th and 7th images).

- 1st image: My 5 day forecast for Long Island

- 2nd image: Severe thunderstorm potential for tomorrow into tomorrow night

- 3rd and 4th images: Future radar for 10 and 6 PM tomorrow to show a general idea

- 5th image: Model Blend temperatures for Long Island

- 6th image: From the NHC

- 7th image: Euro ensembles for the next 10 days